Silver Global & Indian Market Outlook for 25-26

Comprehensive Research Report on Silver: Global and Indian Market Outlook for 25-26

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1. Global Silver Demand and Consumption

Silver demand in 2025 continues to surge, driven primarily by its industrial applications, especially in solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicles. The World Silver Survey 2025 reports a deficit of approximately 117.6 million ounces (Moz) due to inelastic supply response, as over 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of other metal mining, which limits supply flexibility. The primary demand drivers include:

• Solar Industry: Silver consumption in solar photovoltaic panels constitutes over 17% of total demand, with annual growth rates of around 12.6%. China’s solar capacity expansion in 2024 significantly contributed to this trend.
• Electronics & Semiconductors: Silver’s excellent conductivity makes it crucial in PCBs, sensors, and next-gen 5G infrastructure.
• Electric Vehicles: Silver demand in EV wiring, sensors, and battery electronics is rising sharply.
• Jewellery & Investment: While traditional, these sectors continue to be vital, with rising investment demand seen through ETFs and physical holdings.

2. Reserves with Federal Agencies & Top Reserves Countries

Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey designated silver as a critical mineral for the first time, emphasizing its strategic importance. Major reserve-holding countries include:

Rank	Country	Silver Reserves (Metric Tons)	Notable Mining & Utilization
1	Peru	110,000	Largest global producer; mainly mined for industrial use
2	Australia	94,000	Significant reserves, diversified mineral base
3	Russia	92,000	Mining driven by copper and polymetallic deposits
4	China	70,000	Major producer, strategic reserves, driven by manufacturing and tech needs
5	Mexico	68,000	Primary silver export, with plan to increase reserves in future
6	Chile	55,000	Significant underground deposits
7	Bolivia	50,000	Focus on domestic industrial use
8	Poland	40,000	Reserve base for European supply chain
9	South Africa	35,000	Mining mainly for recycling and secondary sources
10	United States	30,000	Strategic stockpiles, especially in U.S. government reserves

Note: Reserves are largely utilized for industrial manufacturing, solar, and military applications, with strategic reserves being evaluated for future supply security, especially in the U.S. and China.

3. Extraction & Mining Activities

Despite the increasing demand, global silver production in 2025 is expected to grow marginally by 2%, reaching roughly 944 million ounces, mainly thanks to expansions in the U.S., Peru, and India. However, over the next five years, an annual decline of about 0.9% is forecasted due to mine closures, especially in Mexico and other key regions, owing to regulatory pressures and depletion of mature deposits.

4. Market Consumption: Global & Indian

Global Market: Silver consumption favourably exceeds supply, creating a deficit that supports price appreciation. The industrial sector leads demand, with solar PV and electronics accounting for over 59% of total usage, reinforcing silver’s role as the “industrial metal of the future.” Investment demand, particularly through silver ETFs backed by actual silver, remains a significant price driver.

India Market: India’s silver market faces shortages due to logistical constraints and high demand in festivals and jewellery sectors. ETFs have recorded a 69% inflow in 2025, highlighting increased investor interest. Despite local price corrections, premiums remain high, and the demand outlook remains bullish amid global scarcity.

5. Price Predictions (November 2025 – March 2026)

• November 2025: Silver prices are expected to stabilize around $48.30–48.60 per ounce, with minor fluctuations influenced by industrial demand and speculative flows.
• December 2025: Prices could rise modestly to around $49.30–49.70, driven by persistent supply deficits and increased industrial consumption.
• Q1 2026 (January–March): The trend is bullish, with forecasts projecting prices reaching $55–$58 by March 2026, supported by the expanding renewable sector, global deficits, and geopolitical supply considerations.

6. Strategic Reserves & Utilization

Country	Reserves (Metric Tons)	Historical Utilization & Key Uses
Peru	110,000	Industrial output, jewellery, exports
Australia	94,000	Manufacturing, exports, strategic reserves
Russia	92,000	Industrial, military, industrial reserves
China	70,000	Manufacturing, strategic reserves, tech applications
Mexico	68,000	Mine output, exports, domestic industrial use
Chile	55,000	Mine resources, exports
Bolivia	50,000	Domestic industry, local markets
Poland	40,000	European supply, industrial applications
South Africa	35,000	Recycling, secondary sources
United States	30,000	Strategic stockpiles, defense, industrial uses

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In-Depth Analysis of Silver Usage, Demand, and Market in India (2025-2026)

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1. Silver Market in India: Overview

India is one of the largest consumers of silver globally, with total demand estimated at approximately 350–400 million ounces annually. The Indian silver market is predominantly driven by the jewellery and ornament sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of total consumption. Investment demand through silver ETFs, coins, and bars has gained momentum, especially amid rising global prices and inflation concerns. Silver’s role as a store of value and hedging instrument remains strategically significant for Indian investors.

2. Consumption and Demand Drivers

Jewellery & Ornamentation:

• Silver jewellery has cultural significance, especially during festivals and wedding seasons, which significantly boost demand during October-November and December.
• In 2025, jewellery demand continues to grow at about 8–10% annually, fuelled by urban and rural markets and a shift towards premium silver products.

Industrial and Electrical Application:

• Silver’s excellent electrical and thermal conductivity fuels its demand in electronics, solar panels, and batteries. With India’s aggressive push towards renewable energy (aiming to add over 40 GW solar capacity in 2025), industrial demand for silver is expected to increase sharply.

Investment Demand:

• Indian investors seek silver as a hedge against inflation, currency fluctuations, and economic uncertainties. ETF inflows for silver in India surged by approximately 70% in 2025, making it an important component of the market.

Other Uses:

• Silver is also used in medical equipment, silver-plated goods, and industrial applications like mirrors and batteries, although to a lesser extent compared to jewellery and industrial use.

3. Supply & Reserves in India

India relies heavily on imports to meet its silver demand, importing roughly 75–80% of its requirements. Local production is negligible, primarily from small-scale mines focusing on other metals like copper and zinc. Despite limited domestic reserves, India has a strategic reserve stockpile, managed by government agencies, to ensure supply stability for critical sectors.

4. Market Trends & Prices

• In 2025, domestic silver prices in India traded between ₹70,000 and ₹75,000 per kg, reflecting global trends, high import costs, and domestic premiums.
• Prices remain elevated due to increased import demand, global supply deficits, and high investment interest.

5. Price Prediction (November 2025 – March 2026)

• November 2025: Expect prices to hover around ₹72,000–₹75,000 per kg, supported by rising global prices and domestic demand during festival seasons.
• December 2025: Likely to see a marginal rise to ₹73,500–₹76,000, driven by festive demand and seasonal buying patterns.
• January–March 2026: Prices could trend higher, reaching around ₹75,000–₹80,000 per kg, as global deficits, industrial growth, and investment demand sustain upward pressure.

6. Indian Silver Reserves and Utilization

While India doesn’t maintain large official reserves of silver, it utilizes its imports mainly for jewellery manufacturing, industrial use, and investment. Estimated stock utilization by sector is summarized below:

Sector	Approximate Share of Demand	Key Uses & Notes
Jewellery & Ornaments	60–65%	Festive demand, wedding season, exports
Industrial & Tech	20–25%	Electronics, solar energy, batteries
Investment	10–15%	ETFs, coins, bars
Medical & Other	2–5%	Medical equipment, silverware

7. Challenges & Outlook

India’s reliance on imported silver makes it susceptible to global price volatility and currency fluctuations. However, increasing domestic investments in solar and electronics sectors are likely to sustain industrial demand. The government’s renewed focus on renewable energy and urban infrastructure will support higher industrial and investment demand for silver in the coming years.

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Conclusion:

India’s silver market is poised for continued growth through 2025–2026, driven by cultural, industrial, and investment forces. Prices are expected to remain firm, with seasonal spikes during festivals and festivals-driven demand. The country’s reliance on imports underscores the importance of global supply dynamics, while industrial expansion, especially in solar and electronics, offers significant upside potential for silver utilization. Monitoring domestic policy shifts and global market trends will be crucial for strategic investment planning.

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