Charting and Trading Seasonality

Charting and Trading Seasonality: A Training Blog

---

Introduction

In the video “Charting and Trading Seasonality: Tutorial”, we explore how to incorporate the concept of seasonality into market analysis and trading. The tutorial guides viewers through the use of seasonality charts — visual tools that help identify recurring patterns in asset behaviour across different time-periods. (YouTube)

Seasonality may often be overlooked in many standard technical analysis routines, yet it can offer an additional dimension of insight: knowing that certain assets have a tendency to perform in particular ways during specific months, quarters or phases of the economic cycle can help refine entries, exits and risk management.

---

What Is Seasonality & Why It Matters

Seasonality in markets refers to the historical tendencies of an asset class, individual security or index to exhibit performance patterns over recurring calendar periods. For example: some commodities may rally every year in a particular quarter due to supply/demand cycles; some equities may underperform during certain months (the “sell in May and go away” adage).

The tutorial emphasises that by charting these patterns you are not predicting exact future price levels, but rather identifying favourable windows of time — “when” the odds are slightly more in your favour. Using seasonality adds a strategic layer atop trend, momentum, volume and other indicators.

In your context — using the aiTrendview Elliott Wave Probability System Pro — seasonality becomes yet another filter: if your wave count suggests a bullish impulse and seasonality indicates that historically that asset tends to perform well at this time of year, you may raise your confidence (or alternatively, if seasonality is adverse, you may reduce risk or avoid trading altogether).

---

Key Takeaways from the Tutorial

1. Seasonality Charts Explained
   The video shows how to generate seasonality charts (e.g., month-by-month return averages, heat-maps), and how to overlay them with price-charts so you can visualise where historical strength or weakness tends to occur. (YouTube)
2. Integration With Price Action
   The instructor explains how simply knowing seasonality isn’t enough — you still need to confirm via price action (trend structure, support/resistance), volume, momentum. Seasonality should act as a filter or confirmation, not the only trigger.
3. Setting Expectations & Risk Management
   The tutorial emphasises that historical patterns are not guarantees: market conditions change (macroeconomics, policy, supply shocks). A seasonal window might show favourable probability but can still fail. Good risk management remains essential.
4. Practical Steps
   • Identify the asset you trade (e.g., stock, commodity, forex pair).
   • Pull up the seasonal chart for that asset across many years (ideally 5-10+ years).
   • Observe which periods show consistent positive (or negative) returns.
   • Mark those in your trading plan: e.g., “Asset X tends to perform best from late September to early November”.
   • When your other analysis (waves, fibs, volume) aligns with that window, consider higher-conviction set-ups.
   • When your other analysis conflicts and seasonality suggests caution, you might reduce size or stay out.
5. Use With Multi-Timeframe Approach
   Since you already apply multi-timeframe (via your system: wave detection, Fibonacci targets, RSI/MACD/Volume) you can align:
   • Macro timeframe: seasonality gives you directional bias (e.g., bullish window)
   • Intermediate timeframe: your Elliott wave count aligns with that bias or not
   • Entry timeframe: trigger via short-term momentum + confirmation
     This alignment increases probability and clarity.

---

Blog-Style Summary for Training

Imagine you are sitting down preparing your next trade for the week. You open your chart for Asset A. You run your Elliott Wave Probability System Pro and it suggests the end of a corrective wave and the beginning of a new impulse upward. Good. But before you pull the trigger you remember: what does the seasonality chart show for Asset A right now?

You pull up the seasonal heat-map: you notice that historically, over the last 8 years, Asset A tends to rally strongly from mid-October through end-November – a window of about six weeks. This year we are just entering that window. That gives you an extra layer of confidence.

Next you check price action: asset is above its medium-term moving average, volume has picked up, momentum oscillators are turning positive. So all three – wave count, momentum, seasonality – are aligned.

You craft your trade plan: enter at the breakout above resistance, stop-loss below recent swing low, target set via your Fibonacci extension. Because the seasonality window is favourable, you might choose to increase size slightly (within your risk parameters) or hold a bit longer than you otherwise would. Alternatively, if the wave count had suggested short, but seasonality was weak for that asset right now, you might avoid the trade or take a smaller position.

Over the next few weeks you track: price moves up, seasonality window continues, your trade runs well.

On the flip side: imagine you had another trade where wave count implied long but seasonality was historically weak for that window. You might still trade, but with reduced size, tighter stop, maybe faster target, or choose alternatives with better seasonality.

In short: seasonality is like an extra lens in your toolkit — not a silver bullet but a refinement. The tutorial drives this point home nicely: use it smartly, with discipline, always with risk management.

---

Training Tips & Best Practices

• Build seasonal data: For each instrument you trade regularly, maintain or have access to a “seasonality sheet” (for example: monthly average returns, number of years positive vs negative in each month).
• Back-test: Use your historical data to test how well seasonality performed for that asset over many years (including bull, bear, flat markets).
• Adapt for changes: Recognise that structural changes (new regulation, technology, supply chains) can alter seasonal patterns – so always remain flexible.
• Use as filter, not trigger: As emphasised in the tutorial, do not let seasonality override your core system (wave counts, risk rules). Use it to adjust conviction, size, timing, not to force non-compliant trades.
• Set clear plans: When entering a trade aligned with seasonality, define in your plan how long you intend to hold within the window, what your objectives are, and when you will reassess if the trade fails.
• Keep discipline: If seasonality is contrary to your analysis, accept that you might skip the trade or reduce exposure. Embrace the mindset that skipping a “bad-probability” trade is strength, not weakness.

---

Conclusion

This video tutorial on charting and trading seasonality underscores an important strategic layer that complements technical analysis and your advanced system. By integrating seasonality-based visual charts with your wave counts, momentum indicators and volume considerations, you equip yourself with a richer situational awareness: when the market is more likely to move in your favour.

Remember: no method eliminates risk. The essence of trading remains: high-probability setups, disciplined risk management, and adaptability. Seasonality enhances your toolkit — it refines timing and conviction, but does not replace your core framework.

---

DISCLAIMER

This blog is provided by aiTrendview for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading involves substantial risk, including loss of principal. Always conduct your own research, ensure any strategy fits your risk profile, and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor if needed.