📊 Market Outlook – 7th August 2025

📉 Market Sentiment – Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 25.77, indicating a phase of ‘Extreme Fear’ among market participants. This aligns with a cautious stance by investors amid ongoing global and domestic uncertainties. As Bill Miller said, ‘Systematic outperformance requires variant perception: one must believe something different from what the market believes, and one must be right.’

🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview

Global markets showed signs of strength with Nasdaq jumping over 1% and major indices like Nikkei, DAX, and FTSE closing in green. Indian indices remained weak, however, with Sensex down 166 points and Nifty down 75 points due to post-RBI announcement volatility. Bank Nifty showed slight resilience with a minor gain of 50 points. GIFT Nifty also indicated a weaker start.

📊 Nifty & Bank Nifty Technical Overview

Nifty 50 closed at 24,574, trading below all key moving averages. The RSI is at 38.16 with a bearish crossover, while MACD remains in negative territory. The PCR dropped to 0.74, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Bank Nifty ended at 55,411, forming a candle with wicks on both sides, signaling indecision. It remains under pressure with RSI below 40 and bearish EMA crossover trends. Resistance and support are forming around 57,000 and 55,000 levels respectively.

📈 Sector & Stock Performance Highlights

Top gainers included Godfrey Phillips, Jindal Stainless, and PG Electroplast. Stocks like Sarda Energy and IIFL Finance also rallied. On the downside, Delhivery, Kaynes Technology, and Vishal Mega Mart faced heavy selling. Long build-up was noted in stocks like Blue Star and TVS Motors, while short build-up was seen in Bosch and Sun Pharma.

🗞️ Market Bulletin – Key Headlines

The RBI kept interest rates unchanged, reducing chances of a near-term rate cut. US markets rallied on Apple-led gains and solid earnings. Bond yields stayed stable while gold and silver continued their upward momentum. Crude oil steadied after five sessions of losses. India criticized the US move to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports related to Russian oil trade.

💼 Stocks in News

– Jash Engineering: Order book reached ₹875 Cr.
– IRB Infra: Toll revenue up 10% YoY.
– MOIL: Manganese production rose 11.4%.
– Bharat Forge: Sold defense business for ₹453 Cr.
– Enviro Infra: Secured ₹1,178 Cr orders.
– Aditya Birla Capital: Income tax demand eliminated/stayed.
– Allcargo Logistics: Gained full control of Ecu-Line Saudi Arabia.
– Patanjali, Glenmark, Medplus, and others faced tax/legal issues.

📊 FII & DII Activity

FIIs were net sellers with ₹52,848 Cr sold over 30 days, whereas DIIs were strong net buyers with ₹75,035 Cr infused. On August 6th, FIIs sold ₹4,999 Cr while DIIs bought ₹6,794 Cr, indicating consistent domestic support despite foreign outflows.

📢 IPO Watch

Upcoming and active IPOs include:
– Highway Infrastructure Ltd
– Knowledge Realty Trust
– Sawaliya Food Products Ltd
– JSW Cement Ltd
– Connplex Cinemas Ltd
– All Time Plastics Ltd
These listings span sectors from real estate to manufacturing and entertainment.

📘 Financial Insight – Bond Convexity

Bond Convexity measures the curvature in the price-yield relationship. It helps predict bond price changes more accurately than duration, especially during large interest rate moves. For example, if rates fall from 5% to 4%, a bond’s price might rise by 8%, but a rate increase to 6% may only drop the price by 7%. Convexity provides critical insight into bond sensitivity and is vital for managing long-duration bond portfolios.

📅 Economic Calendar – 7th August 2025

India:
– Corporate earnings from Titan, LIC, HPCL, and Biocon among others.

United States:
– Initial Jobless Claims
– Wholesale Inventories
– Fed official speeches