5th September Market Report

Friday, 05 September 2025 – GST Optimism Faces Global Hurdles

Quick Market Snapshot

• Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at 41.7 reflects cautious optimism in Indian equities.
• Key Theme: Indian indices remained range-bound as GST reform optimism battled global growth concerns and profit-booking. Autos surged; FMCG and IT lagged.
• Major Movers: Mahindra & Mahindra (+5.95%), Bajaj Finance (+4.29%), Britannia (+2.96%) led gainers; HDFC Life (-3.02%), Wipro (-1.84%) posted notable losses. Gold and Bitcoin extended gains, crude oil dipped.

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Market Sentiment & Overview

Market participants showed moderate risk appetite, with the sentiment index below the midline at 41.7. Caution prevailed as investors weighed policy reform signals and global headwinds, keeping the advance-decline ratio negative at 19:31 for the Nifty 50. India VIX fell to 10.85, suggesting low expected volatility but also raising the risk of sharp future swings. Global narratives were driven by US macro data, escalating trade rhetoric, and OPEC+ uncertainty.

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Indian Markets Deep Dive

Indices & Equities

• Nifty 50 closed at 24,734.3, up 0.08% after failing to hold the 25,000 zone and facing profit-booking.
• Sensex ended at 80,718.01, higher by 0.19%.
• Bank Nifty settled at 54,075.45, nearly flat, drifting below key moving averages.
• Autos rallied strongly, while FMCG and IT names saw pressure. Sector breadth was mixed; many stocks hit upper/lower circuits.

Stock Highlights

• Top Gainers: DOMS Industries (+7.55%), Bata India (+7.15%), Mahindra & Mahindra (+5.95%), Syrma SGS (+5.64%).
• Top Losers: Eternal Ltd (-4.09%), Aptus Value Housing (-4.56%), Data Patterns (-4.05%), HDFC Life (-3.02%), Wipro (-1.84%).
• Volume shockers were seen in Bajaj Finance, M&M, and Bata.

Flows & Macro

• FIIs were net sellers at ₹-106.3 crore; DIIs net buyers at ₹2,233.1 crore, balancing outflows.
• USD/INR traded at 88.06, indicating rupee resilience despite FII outflows.
• India VIX eased further; volatility remains artificially compressed.

Derivatives & Technicals

• Options: Max Call OI at 25,000, Max Put OI at 24,500; weekly PCR near 1.0.
• Nifty 50: Support at 24,700/24,600, resistance at 24,800/24,870.
• Bank Nifty: Key support at 54,000, resistance at 54,500/54,800. Technical indicators signaled weak momentum.

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Global Markets Roundup

• US indices surged to new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.83%, Dow Jones 0.77%, and Nasdaq 0.98%. Upbeat jobs data and central bank dovishness drove gains.
• European markets posted solid returns (DAX +0.74%, FTSE +0.42%), while CAC 40 slipped marginally.
• Asia followed suit: Nikkei 0.78%, Hang Seng 0.25%, ASX 200 0.36%. Overall risk sentiment was constructive despite policy and trade headlines.

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Commodities Market

• Gold rose to $3,552.66/oz, holding a three-week winning streak as investors hedged against inflation and volatility.
• Crude Oil (Brent) was near $66/bbl, down on the week amid OPEC+ uncertainties. India’s refined fuel exports continued to climb on strong European demand.
• Other commodities: Silver and base metals saw subdued moves; agricultural commodity prices were steady.

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Forex Market Analysis

• USD/INR ended at 88.06, showing slight appreciation. RBI intervention expectations helped cap volatility.
• The Dollar Index stayed range-bound; most majors held steady, with traders awaiting the next big Fed move.
• Emerging market pairs were stable, reflecting cautious inflows and muted carry trade activity.

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Cryptocurrency Update

• Bitcoin climbed above $111,300 with a weekly gain over 3%, showing continued demand from institutional and ETF investors.
• Ethereum held firm above $6,000.
• Market sentiment was supported by macro hedge flows, regulatory clarity, and bullish on-chain metrics.

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Economic Calendar & Events

• India: GST reform rollout, central government policy updates, and key corporate results remain in focus.
• US: Non-farm payrolls, Fed commentary, and ISM data are pivotal for the next leg of global risk.
• Global: Watch OPEC+ outcomes and Eurozone industrial production as macro catalysts.

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Advanced Technical Analysis

• Nifty 50: Defended 24,700, but a “Bearish Belt Hold” and “Bearish Meeting Line” point to consolidation. RSI at 49 (positive crossover); MACD bullish.
• Bank Nifty: RSI depressed at 37, MACD negative. Key resistance 54,400–54,800.
• Market Breadth: Remains weak; near-term rally attempts may be sold into unless key resistance levels break.

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Options & Derivatives Analysis

• PCR & Max Pain: Put-Call ratio around 1.0; Max pain for Nifty 50 at 24,700, Bank Nifty at 54,000.
• Open Interest: Call writing dense at 25,000, put accumulation at 24,500 suggests range-bound action until expiry.
• Volatility: Term structure points to low risk pricing in the near term; expect sudden volatility if any macro shock hits.

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Fundamental Analysis

• Earnings: Autos (M&M, Bajaj Finance) reported robust growth, while IT and FMCG struggled with margin headwinds.
• Valuation: Remain stretched in defensives; switch to cyclicals remains in play.
• Macro: GST reforms and positive export data buoy the outlook; risk factors remain from global trade and liquidity.

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Investment Strategy & Outlook

• Short-term: Stay cautiously positive, with hedges in place until resistance is convincingly breached on the Nifty 50.
• Allocation: Overweight autos, select financials, underweight richly valued FMCG; maintain some gold and crypto as risk hedge.
• Risk management: Tighten stops; avoid leverage as volatility is suppressed but can revert quickly.

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Key Takeaways & Action Items

• Expect sideways action in Nifty 50 unless 25,000 is decisively cleared; use dips for accumulation in leaders.
• Monitor Bank Nifty for breakdowns below 54,000.
• Track FIIs/DIIs for signals on institutional appetite.
• Watch India VIX for latent risk; maintain defensive allocations.
• Global: US jobs, OPEC+ outcome, and export trends to drive next week’s sentiment.
• Stay nimble, use options structure for risk control.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Readers should conduct independent research and consult qualified financial advisors before making trading or investment decisions.