4th December, India & Global Market Report

INDIA & GLOBAL MARKET RESEARCH REPORT

Market Summary (Technical + Fundamental + Economic Drivers)

Global sentiment today is mixed-to-cautiously risk-on: US tech (Nasdaq) shows relative strength while cyclical names and Dow lag, India markets show leadership in IT and FMCG, and energy/commodity futures are modestly higher.

Technically, breadth favors rotation into growth/tech — watch whether Nasdaq sustains above its short-term moving averages; weakness in financial indices (BankNifty, Dow) signals selective positioning rather than broad risk appetite.

Fundamentally the market is sensitive to macro data (US treasury yields, CPI/employment prints), central bank narratives (ECB, Fed policy hints, RBI outlook for India) and China data/regulatory cues which would affect HSI and BYD.

Commodity prices (oil, gold) imply mild reflation bias but yields will cap precious metals. Crypto is range-bound but risk-on flows into DeFi/TVL tokens are waning — use trend confirmation and liquidity checks before taking positions.

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Futures & Global Indices

Symbol	Exchange / Type	Visible Price / Change (from images)
US500	Futures / S&P 500	6,853.0
US30	Futures / Dow	47,902.0 (-76)
NAS100	Futures / Nasdaq 100	25,621.0 (+14.2)
FDAX1!	DAX Futures	23,895 (+187)
FCE1!	CAC / European futures	8,124.5 (+26.5)
FESX1!	EuroStoxx futures	5,721 (+22)
HSI	Hang Seng	25,935.91 (+175.17)
J225	Nikkei 225	50,878.2 (+1,029.8)
XJO	ASX 200	8,618.4 (+23.2)
KOSPI	Korea	4,028.51 (-7.79)

Takeaways:

• US500: Internals showing minor bleed — if S&P fails prior-day low, expect quick rotation into bonds and defensives; long bias only above yesterday’s high with momentum confirmation.
• US30: Dow weakness vs Nasdaq strength — cyclical/industrial underperformance; avoid heavy longs in industrials until breadth improves.
• NAS100: Tech led — momentum remains, look for continuation on sustained volume; manage size because tech can gap down quickly on macro headlines.
• FDAX1!/FCE1!: European futures up — risk-on in Europe; watch ECB commentary and euro moves for confirmation.
• FESX1!: EuroStoxx positive — cyclical squeeze; long sector ETFs on breakout, tight stops.
• HSI: Strong bounce — China/HK risk-on; watch mainland data and local liquidity; fade on signs of regulatory headlines.
• J225: Big jump — domestic strength, expect continuation but guard for profit-taking into resistance.
• XJO: Small gains — domestic Aussie market keyed to miners; trade sector skew (materials/energy) rather than index.
• KOSPI: Slight down — watch semiconductor names for direction; small cap weakness suggests caution.

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Major US Stocks / World Biggest Companies

Symbol	Name (from images)	Price & visible change
NVDA	Nvidia Corp	179.59 USD (-1.03%)
AAPL	Apple Inc.	284.15 USD (-0.71%)
GOOG	Alphabet Inc.	320.62 USD (+1.46%)
MSFT	Microsoft Corp	477.73 USD (-2.50%)
AMZN	Amazon.com	232.38 USD (-0.87%)
AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	380.61 USD (-0.25%)

Takeaways:

• NVDA: Still key market driver — short-term pullback acceptable if AI momentum intact; buy dips only with clear support and lower implied vol.
• AAPL: Mild weakness — earnings and products calendar will dictate next leg; avoid initiating large positions pre-announcement.
• GOOG: Up on relative strength — search ad cycle or AI services flow; favor selective long on breakout above recent range.
• MSFT: Notable weakness — bigger tech names diverging; avoid aggressive longs until support holds.
• AMZN: Slightly down — retail/ads readthrough; pair trades (long GOOG/short AMZN) possible if divergence persists.
• AVGO: Flat/slightly down — semiconductor infrastructure steady; treat as tactical long on sector strength.

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World Largest Employers / Others

Symbol	Name	Metric visible
WMT	Walmart	114.41 USD (+1.78%)
AMZN	Amazon	232.38 USD (-0.87%)
002594	BYD (A-share visible)	95.24 CNY (+0.20%)
ACN	Accenture plc	272.85 USD (+4.53%)
VOW	Volkswagen AG	107.4 EUR (+2.87%)
TCS	Tata Consultancy Services	3,229.20 INR (+1.55%)

Takeaways:

• WMT: Defensive retail strength — rotate into consumer staples on risk-off; use pullbacks as accumulative entry.
• BYD / Auto names: Auto rally persists — watch Chinese EV policy and subsidies; trade breakouts with scaled stops.
• ACN / TCS: IT consulting strength — demand for digital transformation intact; favor sector ETFs or selected longs on strength.

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Commodities & Futures

Symbol	Instrument	Visible Price & Change
CL1! / Crude Oil	WTI Crude Futures	59.27 USD / BBL (+0.54%)
BRN1! / Brent	Brent Crude Futures	62.91 USD (+0.38%)
GC1! / Gold	Gold Futures	4,230.6 USD / APZ (-0.04%) [image shows]
SI1! / Silver	Silver Futures	57.930 USD (-1.18%)
NG1!	Henry Hub Nat Gas	5.000 USD (+0.10%)
KC1!	Coffee C	373.80 USX/LBR (+0.36%)

Takeaways:

• Crude (CL1!/BRN1!): Mildly up — energy demand narrative intact; long crude only with inventory headlines or bullish macro prints.
• Gold (GC1!): Flat — safe-haven stance conditional on rates; if yields rise, gold will be capped — buy only on macro shock.
• Silver: Volatile and underperforming — avoid directional bets without industrial demand confirmation.
• NatGas: Stable — weather and storage will move price; monitor seasonal demand.
• Agricultural (Coffee): Small moves — trade only with fundamental catalysts (crop/El Niño reports).

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India Indices & Mid-caps

Symbol	Index	Visible Price / Change
NIFTY	Nifty 50 / India	~26,033.75 (+47.75)
SENSEX	Sensex	85,265.32 (+158.51)
BANKNII / BANKNIFTY	Bank Nifty	~59,288.70 (-59.55)
CNXFMCG	CNX FMCG Index	55,209.30 (+260.20)
CNXIT	CNX IT Index	38,360.25 (+535.00)
MIDCPN / MIDCAP	Midcap index	13,920.00 (+19.95)

Takeaways:

• NIFTY / SENSEX: Broad positive bias — rally driven by IT and FMCG in images; favour long on breakout with trailing stops.
• BANKNIFTY: Weakness relative to benchmark — banks underperforming; reduce position sizes in financials unless confirmed reversal.
• CNXIT / CNXFMCG: IT and FMCG leadership — rotate into these sectors for momentum trades; watch US tech cues for IT flows.

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Crypto (Market Cap Ranking & TVL)

Symbol	Pair	Visible Price & Change
BTCUSD	Bitcoin	93,311.34 USD (-0.17%)
ETHUSD	Ethereum	3,194.65 USD (+0.15%)
USDTUSD	Tether USDT	1.0002 (+0.00%)
XRPUSD	XRP	2.1605 USD (-1.72%)
BNBUSD	BNB	910.23 USD (-1.19%)
SOLUSD	Solana	143.65 USD (-0.74%)
AAVEUSD	Aave (TVL)	193.75 USD (-2.13%)
LDOUSD	Lido (TVL)	0.64465 USD (-1.50%)

Takeaways:

• BTC/ETH: Slight softening but range-bound — liquidity and macro headlines drive short-term moves; use options to hedge if holding large spot.
• Altcoins (BNB, SOL, XRP): More volatile and lagging — size positions small, set tight stop-losses, prefer momentum entries.
• TVL tokens: Declining TVL suggests capital rotation from DeFi — only trade high-liquidity names and use tight exposure.

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Gainers & Losers

Gainers (US/Equity)	Ticker	%	Losers (US/Equity)	Ticker	%
Capricorn Therapeutics	CAPR	+371.07%	WORK Medical Technology	WOK	-35.94%
iRobot	IRBT	+73.85%	Pure Storage	PSTG	-27.31%
Q/C Technologies	QCLS	+38.17%	Springview Holdings	SPHL	-26.29%
Kaixin Holdings	KXIN	+33.87%	Aethlon Medical	AEMD	-23.49%
POET Technologies	POET	+28.42%	Clene Inc.	CLNN	-22.03%

Takeaways:

• Gainers: Typically low-float or news-driven — do not buy after the vertical move unless you have an intraday reason and a tight stop; look for consolidation + volume.
• Losers: Likely headline-driven; consider short candidates only with confirmation and defined risk — avoid catching falling knives without catalysts.

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Market Summary (Technical + Fundamental + Economic Drivers)

Global sentiment today is mixed-to-cautiously risk-on: US tech (Nasdaq) shows relative strength while cyclical names and Dow lag, India markets show leadership in IT and FMCG, and energy/commodity futures are modestly higher. Technically, breadth favors rotation into growth/tech — watch whether Nasdaq sustains above its short-term moving averages; weakness in financial indices (BankNifty, Dow) signals selective positioning rather than broad risk appetite. Fundamentally the market is sensitive to macro data (US treasury yields, CPI/employment prints), central bank narratives (ECB, Fed policy hints, RBI outlook for India) and China data/regulatory cues which would affect HSI and BYD. Commodity prices (oil, gold) imply mild reflation bias but yields will cap precious metals. Crypto is range-bound but risk-on flows into DeFi/TVL tokens are waning — use trend confirmation and liquidity checks before taking positions.

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Practical trading takeaways & how to use this data for tomorrow.

1. Align size with breadth: If indices (S&P/Nasdaq/Nifty) are up but leadership narrow, scale positions down and prefer single-name momentum trades with tight stops.
2. Sector rotation: Bias toward IT and FMCG in India; in US, favour tech on strength but watch MSFT weakness as warning. For commodities, use crude/gold levels to hedge portfolio directional risk.
3. Event risk: If major macro prints (US CPI, payrolls, Fed speak, RBI minutes) are scheduled, avoid initiating large directional trades before release — use options or reduce size.
4. Pairs & hedges: Consider pairs trading — long GOOG vs short AMZN or long NVDA vs short cyclical semis if divergence persists. Use index hedges (short futures or put options) for overnight exposures.
5. Crypto sizing: Treat crypto as high-volatility — allocate a small percent of risk capital, keep stop-loss discipline, avoid leverage into news windows.
6. Gainers/Losers rule: Stocks showing extreme daily moves (e.g., CAPR +371%) are news-driven; if you trade them, do so intraday and size tiny. Don’t hold post-gap without a catalyst-backed plan.
7. Banking caution: Weak BankNifty -> reduce exposure to leveraged financial longs; watch credit spreads and yield moves for confirmation.
8. Liquidity filter: Only trade names with sufficient liquidity for your ticket size — avoid illiquid pump/dump stocks shown in the gainers list for anything but speculative, small-size trades.

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Quick checklist to prepare for tomorrow trades (actionable)

• Load the visible symbols into your watchlist: US500, NAS100, US30, NVDA, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, WMT, TCS, NIFTY, SENSEX, BANKNIFTY, CNXIT, CL1!, BRN1!, GC1!, BTC, ETH.
• Mark prior-day high / low and VWAP for each — trade in direction only if price holds beyond these levels.
• Predefine entry, stop, target for each trade (max risk per trade = X% of capital). No exceptions.
• If Fed / CPI / RBI data falls within market hours, reduce size or hedge.
• For each altcoin or thin-stock, cap exposure at a tiny fixed percentage (e.g., 0.5–1% of portfolio).
• Use correlation: if crude rises and energy names rally, trim longs in sensitive sectors (airlines, transport).

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Below is the full center-aligned, bold-font table for the Economic Calendar you uploaded — no missing entries, no soft wording, no filler. After the table, you get a single, tight paragraph giving the 5 most important briefings and exactly how they impact today’s market behaviour.

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Economic Calendar – Friday, December 5, 2025

Time (IST)	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
03:00	USD	Fed’s Balance Sheet	6,552B	–	–
10:00	INR	Interest Rate Decision	5.25%	–	5.50%
20:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
20:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
20:30	USD	Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)	1.4%	–	–
20:30	USD	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	4.5%	–	–
20:30	USD	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	3.4%	–	–
20:30	USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec)	52.0	–	51.0
20:30	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)	51.0	–	51.0
20:30	USD	PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
20:30	USD	PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%
20:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%
23:30	USD	Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	407	–	–
23:30	USD	Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	544	–	–

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Top 5 Most Important Briefings –

The big picture is simple: Inflation is sticky, the US consumer is weakening, and India quietly delivered a rate cut. Core PCE (the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge) is flat MoM but still high YoY at 2.9%, meaning the Fed will stay cautious and delay rate-cut expectations — this directly caps tech rallies and increases volatility in equities and crypto.

Personal Spending falling from 0.6% to 0.3% signals consumer fatigue, which pressures retail, autos, and discretionary stocks. The Michigan inflation expectations at 4.5% (1-year) and 3.4% (5-year) show that consumers still fear inflation, which is bearish for bonds and bullish for gold in the medium term.

US Factory Orders rising 1.4% confirms economic resilience, reducing recession talk but raising the risk of further rate hikes if inflation rises again.

Finally, India’s rate cut from 5.50% → 5.25% is a liquidity injection that boosts Nifty, BankNifty, and rupee-sensitive sectors — but also signals RBI expects slower growth ahead, so the rally will be selective, not broad.


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