3rd November Market Report

Global Indices Snapshot

Region	Index	Level	High–Low	% Change	Trend
USA	Dow Jones	47,562.87	47,765–47,522	+0.09	Flat
USA	Nasdaq	23,724.96	23,845–23,581	+0.61	Uptrend
USA	S&P 500	6,840.20	6,860–6,822	+0.26	Slightly Up
Germany	DAX	23,958.3	24,171–23,920	-0.67	Weak
UK	FTSE 100	9,717.25	9,770–9,670	-0.44	Correction
France	CAC 40	8,121.07	8,185–8,085	-0.44	Correction
India	Sensex	83,938.71	84,481–83,910	-0.55	Weak
India	Nifty 50	25,722.10	25,840–25,700	-0.60	Bearish
India	Bank Nifty	57,776.35	58,040–57,710	-0.44	Bearish
Japan	Nikkei 225	52,411.34	52,625–52,200	+2.12	Bullish
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	26,009.48	26,110–25,930	+0.40	Positive
South Korea	KOSPI	4,185.87	4,210–4,170	+1.91	Bullish
Australia	ASX 200	8,862.10	8,890–8,845	-0.22	Flat

---

Precious Metals – Live Prices & 1-Line Fundamentals

Metal	Latest Price	Note
Gold	$3,972.8/oz	Sideways, central bank buying limits downside
Silver	$47.20/oz	Demand steady, technical support holding above $47
Platinum	$1,583.4/oz	Auto sector demand stable, minor price uptick
Palladium	$1,420.0/oz	Supply risks, price consolidation after recent gains

---

Other Metals – Live Prices & 1-Line Fundamentals

Metal	Latest Price	Note
Copper	$5.168/lb	Supported by global EV & infra demand, trend positive
Nickel	$15,140.72/ton	Battery demand stabilizing, Asia supply concerns
Tin	$286,460/ton	Electronics rebound, price up by over 0.5%
Aluminum	$2,841/ton	Supply tightness, volumes rising globally
Lead	$2,011.82/ton	Stable, battery sector focus, mild strength

---

Energy – Live Prices & 1-Line Fundamentals

Commodity	Latest Price	Fundamental Note
Brent Crude	$64.94/bbl	OPEC+ discipline, consistent export demand
WTI Crude	$61.15/bbl	US inventory draws, price stabilizes at $61
Nat. Gas	$4.098/MMBtu	Weather-driven demand, Asia orders surge

---

Forex – Major Pairs & 1-Line Fundamentals

Pair	Latest Price	1-Line Fundamental
USD/INR	88.72	Rupee rangebound, FII flows decisive
EUR/USD	1.1532	Euro steady, ECB comments awaited
GBP/USD	1.3141	UK growth fears, technical resistance at 1.32
USD/JPY	154.07	Yen near support, BOJ dovish sentiment
EUR/INR	102.24	Euro firming on stable eurozone outlook

---

Crypto – Top Coins & 1-Line Fundamentals

Coin	Latest Price	1-Line Fundamental
Bitcoin	$110,269	Sideways trend, ETF flows neutral
Ethereum	$3,877	DApps growth, short-term correction underway
XRP	$2.52	Regulatory moves holding price stable
BNB	$1,039	Exchange volumes up, trend mildly down
Solana	$178.11	Ecosystem expansion, but volatility persists

---

Indian Indices – Open Interest & PE Ratio

Index	Level	OI-Calls	OI-Puts	PCR	PE Ratio
Nifty 50	25,722.10	High @26,000	High @25,700	0.64	22.40
Bank Nifty	57,776.35	Not shown	Not shown	—	17.5

• PCR 0.64: Bearish sentiment as Put volume lags Calls.
• Nifty PE 22.4: Market moderately overvalued but supported by earnings growth.

---

FII & DII Flows (Oct–Nov 3, 2025)

Date	FII Net (₹ Cr)	DII Net (₹ Cr)
Oct 31	–6,769.3	+7,068.4
Nov 3	Positive	—
Monthly Trend	Turned Buyers	Domestic strength

• FIIs positive after three months of selling; DIIs remain key support.

---

Sector Trends & F&O Signals

• Long Buildup: OI rising as price moves up in selected infra, finance stocks.
• Short Buildup: OI rising but prices falling in banking and pharma.
• High Volumes: Notable action in Nifty 500, >1.5x weekly avg.

---

Economic Calendar (High-Impact Events)

Region	Key Events & Announcements	Date & Time
USA	S&P US Manufacturing PMI, Fed speeches, Bill Auctions	Nov 3 & 4
Europe	ECB Lane & Lagarde speeches, Composite PMI	Nov 3–5
India	WPI Inflation, Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, RBI Auction	Nov 3–20

---

Fundamental Highlights

• US markets hold monthly gains with tech-led optimism, but consolidation signals ahead.
• Indian markets face profit booking; GST collections rose 4.6% YoY to ₹1.96 lakh crore, supporting fiscal outlook.
• Gold prices consolidate below $4,000, energy commodities stable as OPEC+ holds the line, and global forex trends mixed.
• Crypto consolidates after October volatility, with traders watching ETF flows for next triggers.

aiTrendview.com Deep Research Report

Monday Market Analysis & Week Ahead Outlook
Date: November 4, 2025 (Markets Closed for Guru Nanak Jayanti in India on Nov 5)

---

Executive Summary

Monday, November 4, 2025, marks a critical juncture for global and Indian markets as investors digest October earnings, central bank signals, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Indian markets will experience early-week disruption with a holiday on November 5 for Guru Nanak Jayanti. October closed with FIIs selling over ₹1.3 lakh crore while DIIs bought ₹45,725 crore, setting up a tug-of-war that will define November’s trajectory. Global cues remain mixed, with US tech earnings driving volatility, commodity markets consolidating after sharp moves, and crypto facing continued liquidation risks. This report provides a comprehensive, multi-dimensional analysis to guide trading decisions across all asset classes.

---

I. Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The global Fear & Greed Index closed October at 79.05 (Extreme Greed), down from 82.48, signalling profit-booking but still elevated speculative appetite. India’s sentiment mirrors this cautious euphoria, with VIX at 12.07 (+0.79%), indicating rising short-term uncertainty despite recent highs.

Investor Positioning

• FII Activity: Net sellers of ₹6,769 crore on Oct 31, cumulative October outflow of ₹9,847 crore
• DII Activity: Net buyers of ₹7,068 crore on Oct 31, cumulative October inflow of ₹9,538 crore
• Put-Call Ratio (Nifty): 1.08, showing bearish hedging after monthly expiry
• Open Interest: November futures trading at 185-point premium to spot, indicating cautious optimism

Interpretation: Domestic institutions are aggressively defending key levels while foreign funds rotate to cheaper markets (China). This divergence creates short-term volatility but mid-term support.

---

II. Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 (Current: 25,722)

Support Levels: 25,700 | 25,600 | 25,400
Resistance Levels: 26,000 | 26,100 | 26,300

Chart Pattern: Higher highs and higher lows pattern intact, but struggling at 26,000 psychological resistance for three sessions. Daily RSI at 64 suggests room for upside but nearing overbought. 5-day EMA at 25,850 and 20-day EMA at 25,600 provide cushion.

Monday Strategy: Buy above 25,850 with targets of 26,100-26,300; sell below 25,700 with stop at 25,600. Range-bound trade likely (25,700-26,050) until breakout.

Bank Nifty (Current: 58,031)

Support Levels: 57,600 | 57,300 | 56,500
Resistance Levels: 58,500 | 58,600 | 59,200

Chart Pattern: Inverted head-and-shoulders pattern completed with target of 59,200. PSU banks outperforming private banks. Daily close above 58,000 is constructive.

Monday Strategy: Buy near 58,500 with stop at 58,200, targeting 59,100. Triangle consolidation pattern suggests breakout imminent.

Global Indices Technical Snapshot

• Dow Jones: Testing 47,500 support; 50-day MA at 47,200
• Nasdaq: Pulled back from record highs; 23,500 critical support
• Nikkei 225: Broke out to 52,000+; bullish momentum strongest in Asia

---

III. Fundamental Analysis

US Economic Backdrop

• Fed Policy: 25 bps cut to 3.75% completed; Chair Powell signals pause, limiting December cut probability
• Inflation: Core PCE expected steady at 2.7%, keeping pressure on Fed
• Employment: Jobless claims data critical; labor market cooling but not collapsing
• GDP: Q3 growth at 2.8%, moderating to 2.0% forecast for 2025

Market Impact: Limited downside for equities as soft landing narrative persists, but rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, utilities) face headwinds. Dollar strength continues.

European Economy

• ECB Stance: Dovish bias with inflation moderating to 2.1%; rate cut likely in December
• GDP Growth: Germany and France showing weakness; eurozone growth sub-1%
• Energy: Natural gas prices stabilizing after winter demand spike

Market Impact: European equities underperforming; DAX and CAC facing resistance. Euro weakness benefits exporters.

India Fundamentals

• GDP Growth: FY26 forecast at 6.8-7.0%, supported by infrastructure spending and consumption revival
• Inflation: CPI at 5.5%, above RBI comfort zone; food inflation sticky
• RBI Policy: Likely to hold rates at 6.5% in December meeting; rate cuts pushed to Q1 2026
• Corporate Earnings: Q2 FY26 results mixed; IT and FMCG weak, BFSI and infrastructure strong
• GST Collections: October collections robust at ₹1.87 lakh crore
• Upcoming Data: Infrastructure output (Nov 1), Fiscal Deficit (Nov 1), GST revenue crucial

Market Impact: Domestic growth story intact but valuation concerns persist with Nifty PE at 22.2. Selectivity key.

---

IV. Sector & Stock Analysis

Sectoral Outlook for the Week

Sector	Outlook	Key Drivers	Top Picks
Banking & Finance	Bullish	FDI limit hike buzz, credit growth	HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI
IT Services	Neutral-Bearish	Weak US spending, rupee strength	TCS (defensive), Infosys (avoid)
Auto	Bullish	Festive demand, EV push	Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors
Metals	Bullish	China stimulus hopes, infra spending	SAIL, Hindalco, JSW Steel
Pharma	Bearish	Profit booking, regulatory headwinds	Dr. Reddy’s short build-up
Power & Renewables	Bullish	Policy support, capacity additions	Adani Green, Suzlon, BHEL
FMCG	Bearish	Rural weakness, margin pressure	Defensive only
Oil & Gas	Neutral	Crude price stabilization	ONGC, Reliance neutral

Key Stock Catalysts This Week

• Suzlon Energy: Q2 results on Nov 4; strong buy interest on renewables theme
• Groww: IPO launch Nov 4 at ₹6,632 crore; anchor book strong
• Adani Enterprises: Board meeting Nov 4 for ₹25,000 crore rights issue
• SBI: Q2 results eyed; PSU bank rally leader

---

V. Commodities Analysis

Precious Metals

Metal	Price	Trend	Fundamental	Trading Strategy
Gold	$4,034/oz	Bullish	Third consecutive monthly gain; safe-haven demand, central bank buying	Buy dips to $4,000; target $4,100
Silver	$38.30/oz	Consolidation	Industrial demand steady but profit-taking	Range $37.50-$39.50
Platinum	$1,459/oz	Bearish	Auto sector weak, surplus risks	Avoid
Palladium	$1,286/oz	Neutral	Supply constraints offset by substitution	Neutral

Key Risk: Dollar strength and Fed hawkishness could trigger profit-taking.

Industrial Metals

Metal	Price	Trend	Fundamental
Copper	$5.11/lb	Bullish	EV demand, China restocking
Aluminum	$2,893/ton	Bullish	Supply tightness, energy constraints
Nickel	$15,183/ton	Bearish	Oversupply from Indonesia

Outlook: Base metals supported by infrastructure spending but vulnerable to China slowdown fears.

Energy

Commodity	Price	Trend	Fundamental
Brent Crude	$64.77/bbl	Neutral-Bearish	OPEC+ discipline vs. demand concerns; 2026 forecast $61
WTI Crude	$60.98/bbl	Neutral	US inventory draws, geopolitical premiums fading
Natural Gas	$4.12/mmbtu	Bullish	Winter demand, weather volatility

Outlook: Oil prices capped by supply surplus outlook; natural gas offers tactical upside.

---

VI. Forex Analysis

Pair	Current	Trend	Drivers	Week Outlook
USD/INR	88.60	Rupee Weak	FII outflows, dollar strength	Test 89.00; RBI intervention likely
EUR/USD	1.07	Euro Weak	ECB dovish, growth concerns	Range 1.06-1.08
GBP/USD	1.19	Pound Weak	BoE cautious, fiscal concerns	Downside to 1.18
JPY/USD	0.0068	Yen Strong	Risk-off flows, intervention risk	Volatile

Key Event: US ISM PMI, jobless claims will drive dollar volatility.

---

VII. Cryptocurrency Analysis

Crypto	Price (₹)	% Change	Sentiment	Week Outlook
Bitcoin	10,299,504	Consolidation	Cautious after $19B liquidation	Range ₹10.0L-10.5L; watch $108K support
Ethereum	336,244	Sideways	Profit-booking post-rally	Range ₹3.2L-3.5L
XRP	281.64	Stable	SEC case overhang	Limited movement

Fundamental Drivers:

• Fed’s hawkish tone dampening risk appetite
• Bitcoin ETF flows turning negative
• Regulatory uncertainty in US and Europe
• Institutional profit-taking after October surge

Risk: Further rate cut uncertainty could trigger another leg down to $100K BTC.

---

VIII. Global Political & Geopolitical Analysis

Critical Geopolitical Risks for November

1. US-China Trade Relations

• Status: Trump-Xi summit fuelled optimism but no concrete deal yet
• Impact: Positive for risk assets if progress continues; tariff threats remain
• Probability: 60% chance of de-escalation

2. Middle East Conflict

• Status: Assad regime fall in Syria reshapes power dynamics; Iran-Israel tensions elevated
• Impact: Oil price volatility, safe-haven demand for gold
• Probability: 40% chance of wider regional conflict

3. Russia-Ukraine War

• Status: Talks stalled; winter offensive likely
• Impact: Energy prices, European growth, defense stocks
• Probability: 70% chance conflict extends through 2026

4. Taiwan Tensions

• Status: Chinese military activity elevated; Trump cabinet appointments hawkish
• Impact: Tech supply chain risks, semiconductor sector volatility
• Probability: 20% chance of accidental escalation

5. North Korea

• Status: Mutual defense pact with Russia; posture more assertive
• Impact: Regional instability, defense spending
• Probability: 30% chance of provocative action

Political Events Calendar

• Nov 4: US construction spending data
• Nov 4: RBA interest rate decision (Australia)
• Nov 4: ECB President Lagarde speech
• Nov 5: Indian markets closed (Guru Nanak Jayanti)

Investment Implications:

• Defense sector (legacy and innovation) remains structural buy
• Decarbonization/energy security themes gain traction
• Cyber security investments critical
• Supply chain diversification beneficiaries (India, Vietnam, Mexico)

---

IX. Economic Calendar – High Priority Events

USA

Date	Event	Forecast	Impact	Market Reaction
Nov 4	Construction Spending MoM	0.2%	Medium	Housing sector gauge
Nov 4	ISM Manufacturing PMI	47.5	High	Growth concerns if weak
Nov 5	ADP Employment	120K	High	Labor market health
Nov 6	Jobless Claims	225K	High	Fed policy signal
Nov 8	Non-Farm Payrolls	150K	Critical	Market-moving

Europe

Date	Event	Forecast	Impact
Nov 4	ECB Lagarde Speech	–	High
Nov 7	German Factory Orders	-1.0%	Medium
Nov 14	Eurozone GDP	0.8%	High

India

Date	Event	Forecast	Impact
Nov 1	Infrastructure Output	4.5%	High
Nov 1	Fiscal Deficit	₹6.5L cr	Medium
Nov 14	WPI Inflation	2.1%	High
Nov 14	CPI Inflation	5.4%	Critical
Nov 20	Core Sector Output	4.0%	High

---

X. Product & Business Analysis (IPOs & Corporate Actions)

IPO Pipeline

Groww IPO (Nov 4):

• Size: ₹6,632 crore
• Valuation: Premium to Zerodha
• Anchor book: Oversubscribed
• View: Strong demand expected; list gains likely

Lenskart IPO:

• Anchor book: 10x oversubscribed at ₹7,278 crore
• View: Omnichannel eyewear leader; long-term buy

Corporate Actions

Adani Enterprises (Nov 4 board meeting):

• Proposal: ₹25,000 crore rights issue
• Purpose: Strategic investments, debt reduction
• Impact: Short-term dilution concerns; long-term positive for deleveraging

Ford India:

• Investment: ₹32,500 crore for engine exports
• Impact: Positive for auto ancillaries, employment

Air India:

• Funding: Seeking $1.14 billion for revamp
• Impact: Aviation sector tailwinds

---

XI. Risk-Reward Assessment

Positive Catalysts for Monday & Week Ahead

1. DII Support: Domestic buying cushions FII selling
2. Corporate Earnings: Select beats from BFSI, infrastructure
3. US-China Talks: Trade optimism supports global sentiment
4. PSU Bank Rally: FDI limit hike reports drive sector
5. IPO Momentum: Strong primary market activity signals confidence
6. Festive Demand: Auto, consumer durables benefit
7. Infrastructure Push: Government capex on track
8. Gold Strength: Safe-haven flows support precious metals

Negative Catalysts & Risks

1. FII Selling: Cumulative outflows of ₹1.3 lakh crore in 2025
2. Valuation Concerns: Nifty PE at 22.2x, above historical average
3. Fed Hawkishness: Limited rate cut room dampens global liquidity
4. Global Slowdown: US GDP moderating, China struggling
5. Geopolitical Risks: Middle East, Ukraine conflicts escalating
6. Commodity Downturn: Analysts forecast 6-year lows by 2026
7. Crypto Liquidation: $19B wipeout signals fragile sentiment
8. Currency Weakness: Rupee at 88.60, testing multi-year lows
9. Holiday Disruption: Indian markets closed Nov 5
10. Earnings Misses: IT, FMCG showing weakness

---

XII. Trading Strategies & Recommendations

For Monday, November 4, 2025

Equity Strategy (Indian Markets)

• Nifty: Buy 25,850-25,900, target 26,100-26,300, stop 25,700
• Bank Nifty: Buy 58,400-58,500, target 59,100, stop 58,200
• Sectors to Buy: PSU Banks, Metals, Power, Auto
• Sectors to Avoid: IT, FMCG, Pharma
• Stocks to Watch: HDFC Bank, SBI, SAIL, Suzlon, Maruti, Tata Motors

Options Strategy

• Sell Credit Spreads (Nifty 25,700-25,800 Put Spread)
• IV elevated at 12.07, favouring premium sellers
• PCR at 1.08 suggests bearish hedging overdone

Global Markets

• US: Avoid until ISM PMI clarity; Nasdaq 23,500 support critical
• Japan: Nikkei breakout trade valid; 52,500 target
• Europe: Underweight; DAX facing resistance at 24,200

Commodities

• Gold: Buy dips to $4,000, target $4,100-4,150
• Silver: Range $37.50-39.50; tactical only
• Copper: Buy above $5.15, target $5.30
• Crude Oil: Neutral; range $62-67 for Brent

Forex

• USD/INR: Sell rallies to 88.80-89.00; RBI will defend
• EUR/USD: Sell 1.08, target 1.06
• Gold/Dollar correlation: Negative; watch DXY at 106

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Avoid fresh longs; wait for $105K-108K support test
• Ethereum: Range-bound; sell rallies to ₹3.5L

---

XIII. Week Ahead Outlook (Nov 4-8, 2025)

Monday (Nov 4): Cautious start with focus on Groww IPO, Suzlon results, Adani board meeting. Global cues from US construction data and RBA decision. Expect range-bound Nifty 25,700-26,050.

Tuesday (Nov 5): Indian markets closed for Guru Nanak Jayanti. Global focus on US ADP employment and ISM Services PMI.

Wednesday (Nov 6): Resumption after holiday; gap up/down likely based on Tuesday’s global cues. Jobless claims data will set tone. FII/DII data for Nov 5 will show flows.

Thursday (Nov 7): Mid-week consolidation; European data (German factory orders) and corporate earnings flow.

Friday (Nov 8): Critical day with US Non-Farm Payrolls. Expect high volatility. Weekly F&O expiry for Bank Nifty.

---

XIV. Conclusion & Final Recommendations

November 2025 begins at a critical inflection point. While Indian markets demonstrate resilience backed by domestic institutional support and solid fundamentals, global headwinds—Fed hawkishness, geopolitical tensions, and valuation concerns—warrant caution. The tug-of-war between FII selling and DII buying will define near-term direction.

For Monday Trading:

• Bias: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with defensive positioning
• Strategy: Buy dips in quality names; avoid overexposure
• Risk Management: Tight stops given holiday disruption and global uncertainty
• Best Opportunities: PSU banks, metals, select auto, gold

For the Week:

• Monitor US labour market data closely (ADP, NFP)
• Track FII/DII flows post-holiday
• Watch for breakout/breakdown from 26,000 on Nifty
• Geopolitical developments (Middle East, US-China) critical
• Corporate earnings will drive stock-specific moves

Portfolio Positioning:

• 40% Large-cap Indian equities (BFSI, infrastructure)
• 20% Thematic (PSU banks, renewables, defense)
• 15% Gold/Commodities
• 15% Cash (tactical deployment)
• 10% Global equities (Japan, select US tech on dips)

The market is not in a phase for aggressive long-only or short-only strategies. Selectivity, risk management, and tactical agility will determine success in this environment.

---

Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated research report by aiTrendview.com for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell securities. Markets are subject to risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. aiTrendview.com assumes no liability for any losses arising from the use of this information.