29th September Market Report

Daily Market Pulse – 29th September 2025

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🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Sentiment: Extreme Greed (74.2)
• Weekly Change: Slight uptick from last week.
• Market Advice: Market overheated — exercise caution with fresh longs.

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott

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🌏 Global Market Overview

• US Markets (Fri Close): Dow +0.21%, S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.28% — steady on tech resilience.
• Europe: DAX +0.34%, CAC +0.41%, FTSE flat.
• Asia (Today): Nikkei -0.42%, Hang Seng +0.26%, Kospi flat, ASX200 -0.15%.
• India (11:40 AM):
  • Sensex: 80,745.23
  • Nifty 50: 24,760.00
  • Bank Nifty: 54,603.00
• Volatility: India VIX at 11.4 — stable.
• Currency: USD/INR at 88.70–88.75.

📉 Gift Nifty at ~25,180 → indicates cautious start.

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📰 Market Bulletin

• FII selling continues, though pace easing compared to last week.
• Rupee weak, trading at record-low zone near 88.7 vs USD.
• Brent crude near $70; supply tightness a concern.
• RBI MPC meet on 9 Oct key event for interest rate outlook.
• Corporate Updates: Metals & Infra names showing positive momentum; IT under pressure on global cues.

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📈 Index Technicals

🔹 Nifty 50 – 24,760 (-0.1%)

• Consolidating between 24,700–25,000; support building.
• RSI: 57.9 → neutral.
• MACD: Mildly bullish, but momentum fading.
• Supports: 24,700 / 24,500
• Resistances: 25,000 / 25,180

Top Performers: Adani Ports, Coal India, NTPC
Laggards: Infosys, TCS, HDFC Life

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🔹 Bank Nifty – 54,603 (+0.2%)

• Stable performance; buyers supporting dips.
• RSI: 59 → mildly bullish.
• MACD: Positive.
• Key Support: 54,000
• Resistance: 55,200 / 55,800

Top Performers: SBI, Axis Bank, Canara Bank
Laggards: Kotak Bank, IndusInd Bank

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📌 Stocks in Focus

Positive Buzz:

• Adani Ports: ₹30,000 Cr expansion plan.
• LIC: Stake hike in Akzo Nobel to 10.84%.
• Coal India, NLC: Leading rare earth bids.
• RailTel: Fresh smart infra contracts.
• Bajaj Finserv: Long-term growth 20–22% guided.

Negative Buzz:

• Blue Dart: Tax notice issue.
• Vodafone Idea: AGR case weighing.
• Gujarat Fluorochemicals: Stake sale at discount.

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📊 Derivatives Watch

• Nifty PCR: ~0.95 → neutral stance.
• Bank Nifty OI: 54,000 (support), 56,000 (resistance).
• Index View: Consolidation with mild downside risk if FIIs persist selling.

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💰 FII & DII Flow (27th Sept 2025)

• FII: –₹21,850 Cr (net sellers).
• DII: +₹65,210 Cr (strong buyers).

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🚀 IPO Watch

• Ongoing: Praruh Tech, Aptus Pharma, Solvex Edibles, Prime Cable.
• Upcoming: Energy & Tech IPOs lined up this week.

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💎 Commodities & Metals

Precious Metals

• Gold (Spot): $3,815/oz
• Gold (India futures): ~₹11,460/gram
• Silver: ~₹143,970/kg
• Platinum: $1,393/oz
• Palladium: $1,199/oz

Industrial Metals

• Copper: ~$10,200/tonne
• Aluminium: ~$2,650/tonne
• Zinc: ~$2,900/tonne

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⚡ Energy

• Brent Crude: $69.8/barrel
• WTI Crude: $65.3/barrel
• Natural Gas: $3.07/MMBtu

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💱 Forex & Crypto

• USD/INR: 88.70–88.75
• Bitcoin: $116,500
• Ethereum: $3,472
• DXY: 97.1

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⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers for Indian Markets (29 Sept 2025)

1. FII Outflows: Persistent –₹21,850 Cr last session.
2. USD/INR Weakness: At 88.7 → inflation & import cost risk.
3. Crude Oil: ~$70/bbl → trade deficit worry.
4. RBI Liquidity Stress: Tax outflows & tight system liquidity.
5. Global Central Banks: Fed/ECB tone → volatility trigger.

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📊 Risk Trend Table

Risk Factor	Today (29 Sept)	Previous Day	5-Day Trend
FII Flows (₹ Cr)	–21,850	–24,260	🔻 Persistent selling
USD/INR	88.70–88.75	88.74–88.77	🔻 Weak rupee
Crude Oil	$68.8/bbl	$68.05/bbl	🔺 Rising
RBI Liquidity	Deficit risk	Deficit	⚠️ Stress building
Global Policy	Fed cautious, ECB ahead	Hawkish Powell	⚠️ Volatile

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📖 Word of the Day – Flight to Safety

Shift of capital from risky assets (equities, EMs) to safe havens (gold, USD, bonds) during market stress.

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🔮 Outlook for 29th September 2025

• Bias: Consolidation with mild downside risk.
• Sectors to Watch:
   • Metals & Energy (supported by commodity rally)
   • PSU Banks & Infra (policy support)
   • IT & Autos (pressured by global headwinds & rupee weakness)
• Investor Takeaway: Stay selective. Use gold & defensive hedges. Avoid chasing momentum stocks.

Disclaimer

• Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.