12th September Market Report
12/09/2025
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Fear and Greed Index dropped to 32.36, firmly in “fear” territory and down from 47.36 the previous week, reflecting mounting investor anxiety as US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods took effect on August 27, 2025. The broad selloff extended beyond India as global markets grappled with renewed trade tensions.
Market psychology has shifted decidedly bearish with Gift Nifty trading at 24,664, down 33.5 points (-0.14%), signaling a weak opening ahead. The combination of policy uncertainty and technical breakdown below key moving averages has investors adopting a more defensive stance.
Key market-moving events include Nvidia’s upcoming earnings results and continued concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve after President Trump’s controversial firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Nifty 50 closed at 24,712.05, down 255.70 points (-1.02%), breaking below critical technical levels. The index dropped under both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, with RSI at 45.92 showing a negative crossover and weakening momentum.
The breakdown is technically significant as the index lost the midline of Bollinger Bands while Put-Call Ratio slipped to 0.72 from 0.88, indicating weaker sentiment. Options data shows maximum Call OI at 25,000 and maximum Put OI at 24,000, marking key resistance and support levels.
Banking and financial sectors led the decline, with Bank Nifty falling 1.25% to 54,450.45 after breaking an upward trendline. The banking index is now trading below all major moving averages with RSI at 33.43, nearing oversold territory.
Top Performers: Britannia Industries (+3.87%), Eicher Motors (+2.68%), Hindustan Unilever (+2.32%)
Worst Performers: Shriram Finance (-4.21%), Sun Pharmaceutical (-3.4%), Tata Steel (-2.88%)
Foreign institutional investors continued their selling spree with net outflows of ₹6,516.5 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors provided partial support with net inflows of ₹7,060.4 crore. This pattern of FII selling and DII support has been consistent, with FII outflows totaling ₹51,891.8 crore over the last 30 days versus DII inflows of ₹97,534 crore.
India VIX rose 3.7% to 12.19, moving above short-term averages and signaling increased market volatility ahead. This spike in volatility coincides with the index breaking below key technical support levels.
US markets closed mixed with the S&P 500 rising 0.24% to a record close at 6,481.40, while the Nasdaq gained 0.21% to 21,590.14 and the Dow climbed 0.32% to 45,565.23. The strength came despite concerns over Fed independence and ahead of crucial Nvidia earnings.
Technology stocks showed resilience with more than 67% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, indicating broad market participation. However, the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 1.8%, suggesting underlying economic concerns.
Asian markets displayed divergent performance with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.20% to 42,605.49 and South Korea’s KOSPI gaining 0.40% to 3,200.04, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.90% to 24,974.33.
European indices showed mixed performance with Germany’s DAX down 0.44% to 24,046.21 and UK’s FTSE 100 falling 0.11% to 9,255.5, while France’s CAC 40 bucked the trend, gaining 0.44% to 7,743.93.
Oil prices faced headwinds with Crude Oil (WTI) trading at $63.88 per barrel and Brent at $67.17 per barrel as of August 27. Brent has declined 3.10% over the past month and is down 13.42% year-over-year, reflecting concerns about global demand amid trade tensions.
Gold and silver continued their upward trajectory as investors sought safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. The rally in precious metals reflects growing concerns about policy stability and trade relations.
USD/INR traded at 87.66, up marginally by 0.01%, showing relative stability despite the broader market turmoil. The dollar’s strength comes as investors assess the impact of trade policies on global currencies.
Bitcoin price fell below $112,000, currently trading around $111,788 as macro concerns triggered selling pressure. The crypto market experienced more than $530 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with heightened volatility stemming from regulatory uncertainties.
Key Crypto Developments:
Tata Steel: Infused ₹3,100 crore into subsidiary T Steel Holdings through equity subscription
United Breweries: Investing ₹90 crore for new canning line in Telangana
Biocon: Received tentative US FDA approval for Sitagliptin tablets
Power Grid Corp: Approved ₹209.4 crore NERES-XXIII project for grid expansion
Multiple IPOs are currently active with price bands ranging from ₹70-111, including Sattva Engineering Construction, Globtier Infotech, and Current Infraprojects, with total fundraising exceeding ₹1,200 crore.
Nifty 50 Support: 24,550-24,650 zone
Nifty 50 Resistance: 24,950-25,000 zone
Bank Nifty Support: 54,000-54,200
Bank Nifty Resistance: 55,500-55,750
The current market setup suggests a cautious approach with the index trapped between key support and resistance levels. A decisive break below 24,650 could trigger further selling toward 24,500, while recovery above 25,000 might attract fresh buying interest.
Given the heightened volatility and negative market sentiment, traders should maintain strict risk management and consider the broader trend of FII selling pressure against DII support.
Indian markets face a challenging period with the combination of US tariff pressures, technical breakdown below key moving averages, and persistent FII selling creating a perfect storm for continued weakness. While DII support provides some cushion, the market’s ability to hold above the 24,500-24,650 support zone will be crucial for preventing a deeper corrective move.
Global uncertainty around Fed independence and trade policies adds another layer of complexity, making stock selection and risk management paramount in the current environment. The upcoming Nvidia earnings and economic data releases could provide direction for the broader technology sector and market sentiment.
Risk Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
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