26th August Market Report

Market Pulse: August 26, 2025

Tuesday, 26 August 2025 – Caution Amid Tariff Headlines & Sector Tussles

Quick Market Snapshot

• Market Sentiment: Fear Index at 44.44 – cautious, slight risk aversion; India VIX 11.76 (near 12.2 intraday) indicates low volatility, steady but warier mood.26-Aug-2025.
• Key Theme: Indian indices displayed relative resilience despite global tariff jitters and US-led headwinds, with sustained DII inflows offsetting persistent FII selling.
• Major Movers: Nifty 50 (+0.39%) led by Infosys, Adani Ent, Tata Consultancy; Bank Nifty flattish; top global losers in US – Dow (-0.77%), S&P 500 (-0.43%), Nasdaq (-0.22%). Bitcoin slid to $109,900; Gold firm at $3,384/oz.

Market Sentiment & Overview

Indian equities opened choppy on the back of global tariff uncertainty, notably fresh US tariff threats on China and India. The Fear & Greed Index reads 44.44 (“Fear”), a signal for prudent positioning but not full risk-off. India VIX at 11.76 remains subdued, reflecting a lack of investor panic despite headline anxieties. Unlike global markets, local buying from domestic investors helped cushion indices against sharper pullbacks.

Participants weighed sector rotations and a deluge of corporate announcements, while global narratives swirled around US political shifts, Nvidia’s much-awaited earnings, and President Trump’s removal of a Fed governor (fomenting worries about policy continuity). The combined influence led to a flat-to-cautiously-upward trajectory for Indian indices as traders displayed fresh defensiveness against global risk shocks.

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Indian Markets Deep Dive

• Nifty 50 ended at 24,967.75 (+0.39%), after holding key supports near the 20- and 50-day EMAs. It formed a bullish inside candle — mild recovery after prior losses. RSI rose to 53.48; MACD stayed positive, signalling improving momentum. Immediate support: 24,850, with risk of 24,700 if breached.
• Sensex closed 81,635.91 (+0.4%), supported by large caps in IT and autos. Bank Nifty flat at 55,139.3 (-0.02%), forming a Doji (indecision); trading above 100-EMA but below short-term EMAs, with sectoral pressure in financials, and RSI soft at 40.41.
• India VIX: Ended at 11.76, peaking near 12.2 intraday – showing continued low market.
• Advance/Decline: Nifty 50 breadth 32:18, Nifty 500 saw 1,044 advancers vs 2,387 decliners – weak market breadth.
• FII/DII flows: Previous session (Aug 25): FIIs net sold ₹2,466Cr, DIIs net bought ₹3,177Cr; cumulative monthly FII -₹28,217Cr shows persistent outflows, wholly offset by DII support.26-Aug-2025.
• USD/INR: Hovered steady at 87.6, with RBI keeping interventions minimal; rupee closed weaker by 5 paise.
• Sector moves: FMCG alone held gains, while metal, pharma, realty, telecom, midcap and Smallcap segments corrected. IT (Infosys, TCS) and select financials outperformed; Sun Pharma, Shriram Finance, Dr Reddy’s, Coal India lagged badly.
• Top Gainers (Nifty 50/Bank): Infosys, Adani Enterprises, Tata Consultancy, IndusInd Bank.26-Aug-2025.pdf
• Top Losers: Sun Pharma, Shriram Finance, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Coal India.
• IPO Radar: Multiple SME and mainboard listings, including Sattva Engineering, Vikran Engineering, Shivashrit Foods, and NIS Management debuted with varied subscription.

Global Markets Roundup

• US Markets: S&P 500 fell to 6,439.32 (-0.43%); Dow Jones dropped to 45,282.47 (-0.77%), Nasdaq at 21,449.29 (-0.22%). Markets tracked pre-Nvidia earnings and President Trump’s actions on Fed leadership, with heightened caution post all-time Dow highs on Friday.
• Europe: All red; DAX (-0.37%), FTSE (+0.13%), CAC 40 (-1.59%), reflecting contagion from tariff headlines and sluggish.
• Asia: Nikkei (-1.08%), Hang Seng (-0.47%), KOSPI (-0.82%), showing broad-based selling amidst weakness in Chinese trade data and Fed uncertainty.
• Key Drivers: Global bond yields mixed; US 10Y at 4.28%. Dollar eased after Fed governor exit; EUR/USD rallied to 1.165. Indian IT outlook downgraded by Citi. Commodity-linked EMs underperformed.
• Sentiment Indices: Global VIX elevated but below major peaks, sector rotations visible.

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Commodities Market

• Brent Crude: $68.50/bbl, down 0.44% – supply jitters eased after Russia sanctions talk, but looming tariffs on Indian oil trades remain a risk. Demand-side expectations support a mild rebound if Fed cuts rates.
• WTI Crude: $64.45/bbl, down 0.54%, tracking Brent.
• Gold: $3,384/oz (spot), again near recent highs as dollar weakens, with safe-haven flows amid tariff noise and US political churn.
• Precious/Industrial Metals: Flat to mildly down for copper, silver, platinum; price action dominated by currency swings and China’s economic signals.
• Agricultural: No major price drivers; slight firmness on weather risks, but largely range-bound.

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Forex Market Analysis

• USD/INR: 87.6, rupee closed 5 paise lower; range-bound movement with low RBI intervention. Dollar index slipped to 98.19, momentum cooling as US rates peak.
• Major pairs: EUR/USD up to 1.165; USD/JPY fell to 147.24; GBP/USD, AUD/USD steady, little impact from central bank chatter.
• Volatility: Implied volatility low, no immediate intervention suspects.
• Carry trade & Sentiment: Favoring EMs, but with position trimming ahead of data.

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Cryptocurrency Update

• Bitcoin: $109,900, down from $112,000 – volatility persists as macro headwinds and ETF flows moderate risk appetite.
• Ethereum: Not specified for the day, but trending sideways below $6,000 mark with reduced gas fees.
• Market Cap: Crypto market rotation visible; altcoin sentiment subdued, Bitcoin dominance holds steady.
• Regulatory: No major headlines. Speculators reduce leverage across major exchanges; fear index mildly elevated for crypto.
• On-chain & Funding: Mixed; exchange outflows stabilize, whale transactions low.

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Economic Calendar & Events

• India: No major data today, focus on corporate actions and primary IPO market.
• US: Key earnings (Nvidia), consumer confidence data, market on watch for further Fed moves.
• Global: Central bank meetings later in week, Asian and European PMI to be tracked.
• Upcoming: Ganesh Chaturthi holiday will close Indian markets tomorrow; monitor for global volatility spill-ons.

Key Takeaways & Action Items

• Momentum in Indian markets is anchored by domestic institutional buying, while FIIs stay risk-off.
• sector rotation is likely: focus on defensive sectors like FMCG/IT given global volatility.
• Global risk-off appears contained for now; watch for renewed volatility if US tariffs escalate.
• Forex and commodity moves remain linked to global policy actions and safe-haven demand.
• Crypto investors advised to stay nimble as macro headwinds and on-chain flows remain volatile.
• IPO window active for SME/mainboard, traders can look for short-term opportunities in newly listed names.
• Always verify levels, re-balance portfolios, and adhere to strict risk management.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available market data as of August 25, 2025, market opening. All investments carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.