25th September Market Report

Daily Market Pulse – 25th September 2025

🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Sentiment: Extreme Greed (estimate ~72–75)
• Weekly Change: Elevated; signals overheating in equities.
• Market Advice: Stay cautious with fresh entries; risk of pullback rising.

“Markets may stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

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🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview

• India: Indian equity benchmarks opened flat to slightly negative. The Nifty 50 eased ~0.1% to ~25,032.3; Sensex slid ~0.11% to ~81,629.98.
• Persistent foreign outflows continue to hamper sentiment: FIIs sold equities worth ~₹24,260 Cr in a single session.
• Rupee: The rupee remains under pressure, expected to open near 88.74–88.77 per USD.
• Global / Asia cues: Mixed. Europe and US markets watching inflation & Fed expectations; Asia patchy, China & Japan weak, Korea steady.

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📰 Key Market Drivers & News

• The US $100,000 H-1B visa fee continues to weigh on Indian IT stocks.
• Indian shares flat amid cautious outlook, foreign outflows, and global macro uncertainty.
• India’s FPI trends: In September so far, FPIs withdrew ~₹7,945 Cr, pushing YTD outflow to ~₹1.38 lakh Cr.
• HSBC upgrade: HSBC has upgraded India to “overweight,” seeing Sensex rally potential till ~94,000 by 2026 end.

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📈 Index Technicals & Market Structure

• Nifty’s short-term trend appears negative, with immediate resistance at ~25,150 and support near 24,900.
• Indices drifting lower with weak breadth; FIIs remain heavy sellers.
• Technicals suggest sideways-to-weak bias until fresh positive triggers.

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📌 Stocks in Focus

• Power Grid Corporation: Resilient; trading steady near ₹292.
• Ivalue Infosolutions: Listed at ~5% discount to IPO price.
• Tata Motors: Under pressure (–2%) after JLR cyberattack reports.
• Maharashtra Seamless: Gained ~2% after ₹256 Cr order win.
• Dixon Technologies: Extending gains post UBS upgrade.

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🔍 Derivatives & Flows

• OI / PCR: Neutral bias; options positioning shows resistance at 25,200.
• FII / DII flows: FIIs net sellers (~₹24,260 Cr), DIIs providing strong counter support.
• Sectoral breadth: Mixed — strength in Energy & FMCG; weakness in IT & Autos.

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💎 Commodities, Metals, Energy, Forex & Crypto

Precious / Other Metals

• Gold: ~$3,737/oz – holding steady as safe-haven.
• Silver: ~$132,850/kg – industrial demand steady.
• Platinum: ~$1,392/oz – supported by auto sector demand.
• Palladium: ~$1,198/oz – rangebound.
• Copper: ~$9,925/ton – demand from infra & renewables.
• Aluminium: ~$2,645/ton – construction demand supportive.
• Zinc: ~$2,415/ton – stable.

Energy

• Brent Crude: ~$69.05/barrel – slightly lower from recent highs.
• WTI Crude: ~$64.72/barrel – consolidating.
• Natural Gas: ~$3.07/MMBtu – stable.

Forex & Crypto

• USD/INR: ~₹88.74–88.77 – rupee weak.
• Bitcoin: ~$116,200 – steady above support.
• Ethereum: ~$3,470 – consolidating.
• DXY: ~97.1 – dollar stable.

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⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers for Indian Markets (25th Sept 2025)

1. FII Outflows: ~–₹24,260 Cr → persistent selling pressure.
2. USD/INR Weakness: Near ₹88.77 → imported inflation risk.
3. Crude Oil Elevated: ~$69/bbl → worsening trade deficit.
4. RBI Liquidity: Strained by tax outflows → system deficit.
5. Global Central Banks: Fed/ECB stance key for volatility.

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📊 Top 5 Risk Triggers – Trend Table

Risk Factor	Today (25 Sept)	Previous Day	5-Day Trend
FII Flows (₹ Cr)	–24,260	–38,185	🔻 Heavy selling persists
USD/INR	88.74–88.77	88.78	🔻 Rupee weak
Crude Oil (Brent)	$69.05/bbl	$67.1/bbl	🔺 Rising
RBI Liquidity	Deficit	Deficit	⚠️ Stress building
Global Policy	Fed cautious, ECB upcoming	Hawkish Powell	⚠️ Volatile

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🔮 Outlook for 25th September 2025

• Bias: Weak-to-flat, with pressure from foreign selling.
• Sectors to Watch:
   • Energy & O&G (benefit from crude)
   • FMCG (defensive plays)
   • IT & Auto (under pressure from visa, global cues)
   • Infrastructure (selective resilience)
• Investor Takeaway: Use caution. Stay hedged with gold, avoid chasing momentum stocks. Watch USD/INR & FII flow trend closely.

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Disclaimer

• Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.