1st October Market Report

Daily Market Pulse — 01 October 2025

🌀 Fear & Greed Index

Current Sentiment: Neutral (48.5)
Weekly Note: Market mood has cooled from “greed” levels; investors remain cautious ahead of RBI policy and global events.

“In markets, the risk is not knowing what you don’t know — so keep stops tight and sizing sensible.”

🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview (11:40 AM IST)

Nifty 50: 24,652.40 (flat to slightly positive intraday)
Sensex: 80,401.31 (marginally higher)
Bank Nifty: 54,662.15 (showing relative strength)
India VIX: 11.1 (calm, low volatility)
USD/INR: 88.77 — rupee steady in the 88.7–88.8 band, under pressure from FII outflows

Market tone: Selective buying in metals, PSU banks, and energy; IT and exporters under watch due to currency and global macro factors.

📰 Market Bulletin

RBI maintained policy rates; focus shifts to liquidity management.
Foreign investors extended their September selling streak with outflows of over $2.7 billion.
Oil prices remain rangebound around $66–67 as OPEC+ supply adjustments continue.
Domestic indices opened firm but remain rangebound, awaiting cues from global data and RBI commentary.

📈 Index Technicals

🔹 Nifty 50 — 24,652.40

Short-term bias: Consolidation (range 24,550 – 24,800)
Supports: 24,600 / 24,450
Resistances: 24,800 / 25,000
Momentum: RSI neutral, MACD flattening → sideways with risk of volatility

🔹 Bank Nifty — 54,662.15

Banks show relative strength; PSU banks outperforming private peers.
Support at 54,000, resistance at 55,200.

📌 Stocks in Focus

Strengths Today

Metals & Mining: Stronger commodity backdrop.
PSU Banks: Supported by liquidity flows and credit demand.
Energy & O&G: Brent stability lifts refiners and explorers.

Under Watch

IT sector: Sensitive to rupee weakness and US policy news.
Exporters: Risk to margins from INR depreciation.

📊 Derivatives & Flows

Nifty PCR: 0.95 → neutral.
Options concentration: Heavy Calls at 25,000, Puts at 24,600.
Flows: FIIs remained net sellers in September; DIIs cushioned the selling.

🚀 IPO & Listings Watch

Ongoing SME IPOs in technology, pharma, and energy sectors.
Subscription levels remain patchy; watch for select oversubscription signals in high-demand issues.

💎 Commodities & Metals (11:40 AM IST)

Precious Metals

Gold (India Futures): ₹117,800 / 10g — record highs on safe-haven demand.
Silver (India Futures): ₹144,844 / kg — strong industrial demand.
Platinum: $1,393 / oz — stable auto demand.
Palladium: $1,199 / oz — rangebound.

Industrial Metals

Copper: $10,300 / tonne — supported by supply tightness and EV demand.
Aluminium: $2,690 / tonne — demand steady in construction & packaging.
Zinc: $2,967 / tonne — galvanising demand holds firm.

⚡ Energy

Brent Crude: $66.3 / bbl — OPEC+ moves and US headlines keeping range tight.
WTI Crude: $62.6 / bbl — tracking Brent.
Natural Gas: $3.3 / MMBtu — seasonal stability.

💱 Forex & Crypto

USD/INR: 88.77 — rupee weak but rangebound.
Dollar Index: ~97.7 — dollar steady.
Bitcoin: $114,600 — consolidating after recent gains.
Ethereum: $4,160 — holding higher ground.

⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers for Indian Markets (01 Oct 2025)

FII Outflows: September net outflows of $2.7 billion continue to weigh on equities.
USD/INR Weakness: At 88.77, rupee depreciation pressures import bills and inflation.
Crude Oil: Brent at $66+ keeps India’s trade deficit risk elevated.
RBI Liquidity: Tax flows and borrowing calendar could create temporary tightness.
Global Central Banks: Fed and ECB policy shifts, plus US budget headlines, are near-term volatility triggers.

📊 Risk Trend Table

Risk Factor	Today (01 Oct)	Previous Day	5-Day Trend
FII Flows	Outflows ($2.7bn Sept)	Selling continued	🔻 Persistent
USD/INR	88.77	88.74	🔻 Weak
Crude Oil	$66.3/bbl	$66.1/bbl	🔺 Elevated
RBI Liquidity	Tight	Mild stress	⚠️ Watch
Global Policy	Fed cautious, US budget overhang	Hawkish	⚠️ Volatile

📖 Word of the Day — Roll-over Risk

The risk associated with rolling derivatives contracts to a new expiry, which can lead to sharp price moves around settlement due to concentrated open interest.

🔮 Outlook for 01 October 2025

Bias: Neutral-to-cautious — consolidation likely with risk of volatility.
Sectors to Watch: Metals, PSU Banks, Energy (positive bias); IT & Exporters (under pressure).
Investor Takeaway: Stay selective, avoid heavy leverage, hedge with gold or options. Position sizing and stop-loss discipline remain key.

Disclaimer

Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.