18th September Market Report

Daily Market Pulse – 18th September 2025

🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Sentiment: Greed (60.58)
• Weekly Change: Slight uptick, reflecting continued risk-on sentiment.
• Market Advice: Favorable for holding and fresh positions, but be mindful of overbought signals.

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much you make when right and lose when wrong that matters.” – George Soros

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🌏 Global Market Overview

• US Markets: Dow +0.57% (46,018.32), S&P -0.10% (6,600.35), Nasdaq -0.33% (22,261.33).
• Europe: DAX +0.13%, FTSE +0.14%, CAC -0.40%.
• Asia: Nikkei +0.75% (45,124.35), Hang Seng -0.06%, KOSPI +0.72%, ASX200 -0.58%.
• India: Sensex +0.38% (82,693.71), Nifty 50 +0.36% (25,330.25).
• Volatility: India VIX -0.24% (10.25).
• Currency: USD/INR at 87.9 (+0.23%).

📈 Gift Nifty at 25,510 → signals positive start.

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📰 Market Bulletin

• Fed Rate Cut: US Fed cut rates by 25 bps (first in 2025), starting easing cycle.
• US Markets: Mixed close; Lyft +13.1%, Workday +7.2%, Nvidia -2.6%, Amazon -1%.
• China PBOC: Held 7-day reverse repo at 1.40%, injected 487B yuan liquidity.
• India Boost: Tata Electronics benefiting from Apple’s US iPhone production shift to India.
• Commodities: Gold eased to $3,662/oz after Fed cut; Brent steady at $67.87, WTI $63.95.
• IPO Market: India could add $1.3–1.5T market cap over a decade (Jefferies).
• FX Moves: Dollar rebounded to 97.07 after hitting 3.5-yr low.
• Large-cap Reclassifications 2026: HDFC AMC, Dixon, Swiggy likely to move up.

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📈 Index Technicals

🔹 Nifty 50 – 25,330 (+0.36%)

• Closed above 25,250, continuing higher-high/higher-low trend.
• Bullish candle, upper Bollinger Band tested.
• RSI 66.15, MACD strong bullish histogram.
• Supports: 25,150 / 25,000
• Resistances: 25,550 / 25,669

Top Performers: Britannia (+4.05%), SBI (+3.08%), Bharat Electronics (+2.31%)
Laggards: Bajaj Finserv (-1.69%), Titan (-0.95%).

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🔹 Bank Nifty – 55,493 (+0.63%)

• 11th straight gain, bullish candle with volume pickup.
• Above 20- & 50-day EMAs; RSI nearing 60; MACD bullish.
• Key resistance near 55,859 (200-day EMA).
• Support at 54,462.

Top Performers: IndusInd Bank (+3.26%), SBI (+3.08%), Canara Bank (+2.67%)
Laggards: AU Small Finance (-0.43%), ICICI Bank (-0.17%).

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📌 Stocks in Focus

• Dixon Tech: To acquire 51% in Kunshan Q Tech Microelectronics India (₹552.9 Cr).
• JSW Steel: $60M investment in M Res NSW.
• RailTel: ₹106 Cr Bihar smart classroom order.
• TVS Motor: Allotted ₹1,500 Cr shares to promoter Rising Sun Holdings.
• Muthoot Microfin: To raise ₹8,500 Cr via NCDs; cleared ESOP & board changes.
• Biocon: US FDA approved denosumab biosimilars Bosaya & Aukelso.
• Cochin Shipyard: ₹200 Cr ONGC rig repair contract.
• Bajaj Finserv: Targets 20–22% income growth by 2029.
• Escorts Kubota: Launched PRO588i-G harvester in Punjab & Haryana.

Negative Buzz:

• Bandhan Bank (Yes Bank stake cut to 0.21%).
• Cohance Lifesciences (block deal worth ₹1,756 Cr).
• SVP Global Textiles (fire incident).
• Vikram Solar & Indosolar (pledges/liquidity issues).
• Kansai Nerolac (₹1.68 Cr penalty).

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📊 Derivatives Watch

• Nifty PCR: Hovering around neutral → consolidation bias.
• Bank Nifty: OI positioning signals strong interest in 55,000–55,200 zone.

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💰 FII & DII Flow (17th Sept 2025)

• FII: -₹34,042 Cr (persistent selling).
• DII: +₹71,926 Cr (robust counter buying).

DII inflows continue to buffer heavy FII outflows.

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🚀 IPO Watch

• Today (18 Sept): JD Cables Ltd (₹144–152), Ivalue Infosolutions (₹284–299).
• Ongoing: Euro Pratik Sales Ltd, Sampat Aluminium Ltd, VMS TMT Ltd.
• Upcoming (22 Sept): Fresh listings pipeline includes new tech plays.

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💎 Commodities & Metals

Precious Metals

• Gold (24K): ~₹11,090/gram – Slight dip post Fed cut, demand intact.
• Silver: ~₹132,700/kg – Industrial momentum steady.
• Platinum: ~$1,390/oz – Auto & jewelry support.
• Palladium: ~$1,198/oz – Demand tied to emission tech.

Other Metals

• Copper: ~$9,915/ton – EV & infra push supportive.
• Aluminium: ~$2,640/ton – Strong demand from real estate, power grids.
• Zinc: ~$2,405/ton – Steady consumption from steel sector.

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⚡ Energy

• Brent Crude: ~$67.9/barrel – Fed easing not enough to boost demand outlook.
• WTI Crude: ~$63.9/barrel – Weakness from high US stockpiles.
• Natural Gas (US): ~$3.06/MMBtu – Stable with mild demand.

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💱 Forex & Crypto

• USD/INR: ~₹87.9 – INR rangebound.
• Bitcoin: ~$116,200 – Supported by Fed cut optimism.
• Ethereum: ~$3,470 – Gains steady; investor interest resilient.
• DXY: ~97.07 – Dollar bounce post Fed.

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📌 Critical Economic Announcements

🇺🇸 USA

• Fed Rate Cut (17 Sept 2025) – start of easing cycle.
• US Jobless Claims & Housing Data – short-term sentiment.

🇮🇳 India

• WPI & CPI Data (Sept) – inflation trajectory key for RBI.
• RBI MPC Meeting (9 Oct 2025) – repo outlook.

🇪🇺 Eurozone

• ECB Policy Meet (29–30 Oct).
• Eurozone CPI & PMI releases – guidance on rate trajectory.

🌏 Asia

• China: Central Bank liquidity actions, GDP & retail sales data.
• Japan: Trade deficit widening; inflation reports critical.
• South Korea: Export/import trends shaping Asia outlook.

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📖 Word of the Day – Market Efficiency

Market Efficiency reflects how quickly prices adjust to new information. In efficient markets (large-caps, developed markets), passive investing often works better. In less efficient markets (small-caps), active strategies may still deliver alpha.

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🔮 Outlook for 18th September 2025

• Bias: Positive with Fed easing, but volatility could rise as traders digest rate cut.
• Sectors to Watch: Banks (SBI, IndusInd), Pharma (Biocon), Industrials (Dixon, RailTel, Escorts).
• Investor Takeaway: Favor quality large-caps; keep hedges in gold & silver. Energy sector weakness signals cautious stance on oil-related plays.
  
  
• Disclaimer
• Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.