Daily Market Pulse – 17th September 2025
🌀 Fear & Greed Index
- Current Sentiment: Greed (60.44)
- Weekly Change: Flat vs yesterday (60.34), still showing strong appetite for equities.
- Market Advice: Favorable for new and existing positions, but watch for overextension.
“Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new.” – Bob Parsons
🌏 Global Market Overview
- US Markets: Dow -0.27% (45,757.9), S&P -0.13% (6,606.76), Nasdaq -0.07% (22,333.96).
- Europe: DAX -1.77%, FTSE -0.88%, CAC -1.00%.
- Asia: Nikkei +0.07% (44,934.2), Hang Seng +0.71%, KOSPI -1.01%, ASX200 -0.60%.
- India: Sensex +0.73% (82,380.69), Nifty 50 +0.68% (25,239).
- Volatility: India VIX -1.20% (10.27, record low).
- Currency: USD/INR at 87.89 (+0.03).
📈 Gift Nifty at 25,377 → signals positive opening.
📰 Market Bulletin
- Fed Watch: US markets slipped ahead of rate decision; Tesla +2.8%, Nvidia -1.6%, Webtoon +39%.
- India-US Talks: Both termed trade discussions “positive”; roadmap for deal intensifying.
- Currency: Dollar index fell to 96.65 (2-month low), euro +0.87%, sterling at 2-month high $1.365.
- Japan: Exports fell 0.1% (4th monthly drop), imports -5.2% → trade deficit widened.
- Corporate India: Funding shifted to non-bank routes in FY25 due to soft bank credit demand.
- Adani Ports: ₹30,000 Cr investment to expand Mundra, Dhamra & Vizhinjam ports by 2030.
- ESAF Small Finance Bank: To raise ₹300–500 Cr Tier-1 capital; turnaround expected from Q3.
- China Biotech: TransThera shares soared 4,500% since June IPO (HK$679.5 vs HK$13.15).
- Gold: Held at $3,692/oz after crossing $3,700 intraday.
- Oil: Brent >$68, WTI near $65 as Russian output hit post-pandemic lows.
📈 Index Technicals
🔹 Nifty 50 – 25,239 (+0.68%)
- Strong bullish candle, breaking lower-high lower-low trend.
- RSI at 63.8 – momentum strengthening.
- MACD widening positive histogram.
- Supports: 25,150 / 25,000–24,850
- Resistance: 25,381 / 25,501
Top Performers: Tata Consumer (+2.58%), L&T (+2.28%), M&M (+2.2%)
Laggards: Shriram Finance (-0.95%), Asian Paints (-0.87%).
🔹 Bank Nifty – 55,148 (+0.47%)
- Closed with bullish candle, volumes strong.
- 20-day EMA sloping up towards 50-day EMA = short-term strength.
- RSI at 55; MACD bullish.
- Options: Resistance 57,000; support 54,000; heavy action in 55,000–55,200 range.
Top Performers: AU Small Finance (+2.58%), Axis Bank (+1.52%), SBI (+0.82%)
Laggards: IDFC First (-0.31%), PNB (-0.06%).
📌 Stocks in Focus
- Jindal Steel International: Bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (>€2B, decarbonisation).
- Globe Civil: Orders worth ₹712 Cr.
- LIC: Stake raised in Akzo Nobel India (8.84% → 10.84%).
- Railtel Corp: Redevelopment of Chembur housing societies (₹1,700 Cr).
- Ashapura Minechem: JV with China Railway for Guinea bauxite project.
- Coal India & NLC India: Preferred bidders for rare earth and mineral blocks.
- Bharat Electronics: ₹57.5 Cr Bihar education infra order.
- Tech Mahindra: ₹7.25 Cr renewable energy project.
- Mahindra Lifespace: QIP issue to raise ₹2,500 Cr.
Negative Buzz:
- Blue Dart (₹420 Cr tax notice).
- Gujarat Fluorochemicals (promoter stake sale at discount).
- One Mobikwik (₹26 Cr unauthorized settlements).
- Maharashtra Seamless (CCI inquiry).
- P&G Health (CFO resignation).
📊 Derivatives Watch
- Nifty PCR: Above 1 → supports bullish undertone.
- Bank Nifty: OI build-up at 55,000–55,200 → consolidation zone.
💰 FII & DII Flow (16th Sept 2025)
- FII: -₹32,917 Cr (continued selling).
- DII: +₹69,632 Cr (strong counter inflows).
Domestic institutions continue to support market against foreign outflows.
🚀 IPO Watch
- Today (17 Sept): VMS TMT Ltd (₹94–99), Sampat Aluminium Ltd (₹114–120).
- Ongoing: TechD Cybersecurity Ltd (₹183–193), Euro Pratik Sales Ltd (₹235–247).
- Upcoming (19 Sept): More listings in pipeline.
💎 Commodities & Metals
Precious Metals
- Gold (24K): ~₹11,100/gram – Supported by safe-haven demand & USD weakness.
- Silver: ~₹132,800/kg – Outperforming gold; industrial demand strong.
- Platinum: ~$1,391/oz – Auto catalyst demand stable.
- Palladium: ~$1,200/oz – Sensitive to emission regulations.
Other Metals
- Copper: ~$9,920/ton – Boosted by EV & renewable infra demand.
- Aluminium: ~$2,645/ton – Firm on construction/packaging strength.
- Zinc: ~$2,410/ton – Demand steady in infrastructure projects.
⚡ Energy
- Brent Crude: ~$68/barrel – Gains on Russian supply drop.
- WTI Crude: ~$65/barrel – Supported by refinery disruptions.
- Natural Gas (US): ~$3.05/MMBtu – Stable; seasonal demand trend in play.
💱 Forex & Crypto
- USD/INR: ~₹87.9 – INR firm, dollar index weak.
- Bitcoin: ~$116,000 – Holding strong ahead of Fed decision.
- Ethereum: ~$3,460 – Gains capped; network upgrade sentiment positive.
- DXY: ~96.6 – 2-month low; aiding risk assets.
📌 Critical Economic Announcements
🇺🇸 USA
- Fed Rate Decision (16–17 Sept 2025) – pivotal for global liquidity.
- US CPI & PPI releases – inflation trajectory under watch.
🇮🇳 India
- WPI Inflation Data (this week).
- RBI Rate Decision (9 Oct 2025) – repo outlook linked to CPI/WPI.
🇪🇺 Eurozone
- ECB Policy Meeting (29–30 Oct).
- Eurozone Inflation & PMI – sentiment drivers.
🌏 Asia
- China: GDP, retail sales, PMI, trade balance.
- Japan: Inflation, trade deficit, BoJ stance.
- South Korea: Export/import trends.
📖 Word of the Day – Alpha
Alpha is the excess return generated by a fund/strategy compared to its benchmark. Positive alpha = skillful outperformance; negative alpha = underperformance. It’s a key metric to judge fund managers and active strategies.
🔮 Outlook for 17th September 2025
- Bias: Positive with Nifty breaking out; overextension risk near upper Bollinger band.
- Sectors to Watch: Metals (Jindal Steel, Coal India, Ashapura), Infrastructure (Adani Ports, RailTel), BFSI (LIC stake hike, ESAF Bank).
- Investor Takeaway: Stay long with strict stop-loss; look for alpha in selective mid-caps. Commodities (gold, silver, crude) remain strong hedges.
Disclaimer
Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.
