17th October Market Report

🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Reading: 68.13 — Greed Zone
• Weekly Change: +14.38 points (from 53.75 last week)
• Sentiment: Traders remain confident, but short-term caution advised as greed enters overbought territory.

“Being wrong is something anyone involved in capital markets has to get used to, though being used to it and being comfortable with it are two different things.” — Bill Miller

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🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview (as of 8:00 PM IST)

Region / Market	Index	Level (High–Low)	% Change	Trend
🇮🇳 India	Nifty 50	25,585.30 (25,640 – 25,320)	+1.03 %	Bullish
🇮🇳 India	Sensex	83,467.66 (83,560 – 82,720)	+1.04 %	Strong Uptrend
🇮🇳 India	Bank Nifty	57,422.55 (57,500 – 56,850)	+1.10 %	Bullish
🇺🇸 USA	Dow Jones	45,952.24 (46,380 – 45,700)	–0.65 %	Weak
🇺🇸 USA	Nasdaq Composite	22,562.54 (22,780 – 22,350)	–0.47 %	Soft
🇺🇸 USA	S&P 500	6,629.07 (6,710 – 6,600)	–0.63 %	Rangebound
🇩🇪 Germany	DAX 40	24,272.19 (24,310 – 24,100)	+0.38 %	Stable
🇫🇷 France	CAC 40	8,188.59 (8,200 – 8,050)	+1.38 %	Strong
🇬🇧 UK	FTSE 100	9,436.09 (9,460 – 9,380)	+0.12 %	Flat
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	Hang Seng	25,613.20 (25,860 – 25,500)	–1.06 %	Weak
🇯🇵 Japan	Nikkei 225	48,115.40 (48,200 – 47,800)	–0.34 %	Flat
🇰🇷 South Korea	KOSPI	3,782.84 (3,790 – 3,740)	+0.92 %	Positive
🇦🇺 Australia	ASX 200	8,997.40 (9,050 – 8,940)	–0.78 %	Mild Weakness
🇮🇳 India	GIFT Nifty	25,606.00 (25,630 – 25,560)	–0.14 %	Slightly Negative
—	India VIX	10.87 (10.40 – 10.90)	+3.18 %	Volatility Rising
—	USD/INR	87.97 (88.00 – 87.80)	+0.01 %	Flat

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📅 Economic Calendar — India / USA / Europe (Week of 17 Oct 2025)

🇮🇳 India

• WPI Inflation (Sep): +1.78 % (vs 1.4 % previous) — mild pickup.
• CPI (Sep): 1.54 % — record 8-year low.
• Trade Balance: Deficit widened to $19.7B as imports surged 4.1 %.
• RBI MPC Minutes: Emphasized “data-driven patience” on rate cuts.
• Forex Reserves: To be announced 18 Oct — expected around $654B.

🇺🇸 United States

• Retail Sales (Sep): +0.4 % MoM — meets forecast.
• PPI Inflation: +0.3 % MoM — as expected.
• FOMC Minutes: Dovish tone; market pricing in 50 bps cut by Dec 2025.
• Initial Jobless Claims: 230 K (Prev 235 K) — steady job market.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim): 74.1 (Prev 72.5) — confidence improving.

🇪🇺 Europe & UK

• Eurozone CPI (Final Sep): +2.4 % YoY — unchanged.
• Germany ZEW Sentiment: +8.2 — continued optimism.
• Eurozone Industrial Output: +0.3 % MoM.
• ECB Speech (Lagarde): Reaffirmed gradual easing stance.
• UK GDP (Q3 Est): +0.4 % QoQ — steady expansion.

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📰 Market Bulletin — Key Developments

• Wall Street: Banks plunge after alleged US regional loan fraud; Zions & Western Alliance down 13 %.
• Trump–Putin: Announce plan for Ukraine summit in Budapest within 2 weeks.
• India: MEA denies Trump’s claim on Russian oil assurances; rupee strengthened ₹0.24 to ₹87.83 / $.
• IPO Wave: India’s F&B sector eyes ₹9,000 crore IPO pipeline (Milky Mist, Prestige Hospitality, Curefoods).
• Start-ups: Zepto raises $450 mn (~₹3,758 cr) from CalPERS at $7 bn valuation.
• Corporate Highlights:
  • Infosys: Q2 revenue +2.2 %; guidance raised to 2–3 %; ₹23 dividend.
  • Jio Financial: Revenue +41 % YoY; fivefold profit jump.
  • HCL Tech: Expanded Zscaler cybersecurity alliance.
  • BEML: Signs composites deal with Kineco for aerospace.
  • JSW Energy: ₹183 cr order from BNC Power Projects.
  • LTIMindtree: Profit +10 %; revenue +5.6 %.
  • Punjab & Sind Bank: Profit +22.9 %; asset quality improves.
  • CIE Automotive India: Revenue +11 %, profit +9.6 %.
  • Aegis Vopak: 400 MW power supply LoA from KPCL.

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📈 Technical Outlook

🔹 Nifty 50 — 25,585.30 (+1.03 %)

• Trend: Fresh breakout above 25,500; strong bullish continuation.
• Supports: 25,400 / 25,300 Resistance: 25,650 / 25,800.
• Momentum: RSI 66.8 | MACD positive | PCR 1.38 → bullish bias.

🔹 Bank Nifty — 57,422.55 (+1.10 %)

• Trend: Third straight gain; trading above all major EMAs.
• Supports: 56,200 / 55,800 Resistance: 57,600 / 57,800.
• Indicators: RSI 72.6 (overbought); watch for consolidation.

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💰 FII & DII Flows (Cash Market)

Date	FII (₹ Cr)	DII (₹ Cr)
16 Oct 2025	–25,683.3	+62,780.8
15 Oct 2025	+709.5	+23,601.8
14 Oct 2025	–223.5	+16,428.6
13 Oct 2025	+997.3	+4,076.2

Observation: FIIs net sellers; DIIs continue absorbing supply through steady fund inflows.

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💎 Commodities & Metals (8:00 PM IST)

Asset	Price	% Change	View
Gold (Spot)	$4,224.79 / oz	+0.40 %	Safe-haven demand persists ahead of summit.
Silver (India)	₹171,400 / kg	+0.25 %	Industrial demand robust.
Brent Crude	$62.40 / bbl	+0.20 %	Steady on geopolitical headlines.
WTI Crude	$59.10 / bbl	+0.15 %	Rangebound.
Copper (LME)	$10,320 / t	+0.12 %	Tight supply supports prices.
USD/INR	87.97	+0.01 %	Stable rupee.

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💱 Forex & Crypto Overview

• USD/INR: 87.97 (flat).
• Dollar Index: 98.23 (3-month low).
• Bitcoin: $118,200 (–0.5 %) — consolidating.
• Ethereum: $4,030 (+0.3 %) — mild recovery.

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⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers

1. US banking stress from fraud reports may spill into global risk sentiment.
2. Persistent FII outflows despite domestic support.
3. Crude oil volatility on Russia–OPEC headlines.
4. Fed minutes impact on rate-cut timelines.
5. Rupee volatility as bond yields adjust to foreign flows.

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🔮 Outlook for 18 October 2025

• Bias: Positive but overbought; Nifty likely to trade 25,450–25,750 zone.
• Sectors: PSU banks, energy, defence continue to outperform; IT shows profit-taking.
• Strategy: Trail long positions; new entries only near pullbacks (25,400 support zone).

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📖 Word of the Day — “Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)”

APT explains an asset’s expected return based on multiple economic factors — inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic shocks. It suggests that price discrepancies create temporary risk-free profit opportunities (arbitrage) which markets quickly correct.

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📜 Disclaimer — aiTrendview.com

This report is created solely for training and educational purposes and is not investment advice.
aiTrendview.com and its contributors are not SEBI-registered analysts.
All data is AI-aggregated and verified from public sources.
Readers should consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

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