Daily Market Pulse – 16th September 2025
🌀 Fear & Greed Index
- Current Sentiment: Greed (60.34)
- Weekly Change: Rising further from yesterday’s 55.12, showing stronger buying appetite.
- Market Advice: Favorable for selective positions, but stay cautious near resistances.
“If all that can be promised is an average result, how can managers expect to be paid large fees for providing that average result?” – Benjamin Graham
🌏 Global Market Overview
- US Markets: Dow +0.11% (45,883.45), S&P +0.47% (6,615.28), Nasdaq +0.94% (22,348.75, record intraday).
- Europe: DAX +0.21%, FTSE -0.07%, CAC +0.92%.
- Asia: Nikkei +0.23% (44,871.64, fresh record), Hang Seng +0.52%, KOSPI +0.81%, ASX200 +0.18%.
- India: Sensex -0.15% (81,785.74), Nifty 50 -0.18% (25,069).
- Volatility: India VIX +2.72% (10.40).
- Currency: INR at 88.09 (steady).
📉 Gift Nifty at 25,156.5, down 24 pts → signals flat to weak start.
📰 Market Bulletin
- US Tech Rally: Alphabet surged +4.3%, crossing $3 trillion market cap after antitrust win.
- US-China Deal: Framework agreement on TikTok; deadline extended beyond Sept 17.
- India Update: Flipkart India FY25 loss widened to ₹5,189 Cr (despite 17% revenue growth); Flipkart Internet losses narrowed.
- Railways: Stocks rally on government capex and new project wins.
- EV Sector: BYD plunged -30%, losing $45B in value amid China’s EV price war.
- Commodities: Oil steady – Brent >$67, WTI ~$63 on Russian sanctions.
- SEBI Move: Cuts minimum IPO size, easing path for Jio Platforms’ 2026 listing.
- IPO Buzz: Carlsberg exploring India listing (FY24 profit +60% at ₹323 Cr).
- Currency: Rupee gained 6 paise, closing at 88.20/USD.
📈 Index Technicals
🔹 Nifty 50 – 25,069 (-0.18%)
- Closed slightly below resistance zone (25,150–25,250).
- Above key EMAs: 50-day (24,828), 100-day (24,671).
- RSI at 59 (positive bias), MACD bullish crossover.
- Price action forming higher lows since 24,600 bottom (early Sept).
- Supports: 25,000 / 24,877
- Resistances: 25,150 / 25,250
Top Performers: Asian Paints (+0.66%), Reliance (+0.31%)
Laggards: UltraTech Cement (-1.72%), Cipla (-1.67%), M&M (-1.66%)
🔹 Bank Nifty – 54,888 (+0.14%)
- Sustained above 54,462 support; trading above 10- & 20-day EMAs.
- RSI at 51 with bullish crossover; MACD positive.
- Resistance near 55,000–55,200 (aligns with 50-day EMA).
- Sustaining above 54,500 keeps trend intact; below risks drop to 53,650.
Top Performers: IDFC First Bank (+1.4%), PNB (+1.12%), Federal Bank (+0.98%)
Laggards: Kotak Mahindra Bank (-0.58%), IndusInd Bank (-0.08%).
📌 Stocks in Focus
- Adani Enterprises: ₹4,081 Cr Kedarnath ropeway project (20 lakh annual pilgrims).
- NTPC Green Energy: ₹421 Cr new orders; FY26 inflows ₹3,500 Cr (+78% YoY).
- Wipro (Sangreen Subsidiary): Won ₹292 Cr wind energy contracts.
- Mishra Dhatu: ₹2,090 Cr Barnar Reservoir project win.
- Concord Control Systems: ₹48.8 Cr solar infra order.
- Zydus Lifesciences: Bonus issue (2:1) + new vet generics launched in US.
- JSW Infra: 30-year concession to modernise Kolkata Dock berths.
- Lemon Tree Hotels: New 56-room property in Gaya.
- Great Eastern Shipping: Sold 2005-built crude tanker.
Negative Buzz:
- Wendt (CEO resignation).
- Waaree Energies (subsidiary struck off regulatory list).
📊 Derivatives Watch
- Nifty PCR: Slightly above 1 → Mild bearish undertone despite index holding support.
- Bank Nifty: Call OI concentration at 55,000, Put OI strong at 54,500 → consolidation expected.
💰 FII & DII Flow (15th Sept 2025)
- FII: -₹33,225 Cr (continued selling).
- DII: +₹68,113 Cr (providing strong domestic support).
FII outflows persist, but DII inflows keep indices resilient.
🚀 IPO Watch
- Today (16 Sept): Euro Pratik Sales Ltd (₹235–247).
- Tomorrow (17 Sept): L.T. Elevator Ltd (₹76–78).
- 18 Sept: TechD Cybersecurity Ltd (₹183–193).
💎 Commodities & Metals
Precious Metals
- Gold (24K): ~₹11,105/gram – Near record highs on weak USD and Fed cut hopes.
- Silver: ~₹132,900/kg – Outperforming gold with strong industrial and investor demand.
- Platinum: ~$1,392/oz – Supported by automotive demand.
- Palladium: ~$1,198/oz – Demand tied to emission control technologies.
Other Metals
- Copper: ~$9,900/ton – Demand from renewables and EV sector remains supportive.
- Aluminium: ~$2,650/ton – Rising on strong construction and packaging demand.
- Zinc: ~$2,400/ton – Supported by infrastructure and steel galvanisation demand.
⚡ Energy
- Crude Oil (Brent): ~$63.47/barrel – Supply risks keep upside open amid sanctions.
- WTI Crude: ~$62.8/barrel – Rangebound but firm.
- Natural Gas (US): ~$3.02/MMBtu – Mild recovery, seasonal demand to decide trend.
💱 Forex & Crypto
- USD/INR: ~₹88.15–88.20 – INR stronger on steady inflows and weaker USD.
- Bitcoin: ~$115,000–116,000 – Holding support at 115K; Fed decision could trigger breakout.
- Ethereum: ~$3,450 – Gains capped ahead of Fed; network upgrades supportive.
- US Dollar Index (DXY): ~103.9 – Lower, aiding risk assets and commodities.
📌 Critical Economic Announcements to Watch
🇺🇸 USA
- FOMC / Fed Rate Decision (16-17 Sept 2025) – Key for global liquidity.
- US CPI & PPI releases – Inflation trend signals Fed path.
- Retail Sales & Industrial Production – Demand strength indicator.
🇮🇳 India
- WPI Inflation Data (this week) – Input cost pressures in focus.
- RBI Rate Decision (9 Oct 2025) – Repo stance to be guided by CPI/WPI trends.
- IIP, PMI numbers & FII flows – Gauging domestic growth & capital inflows.
🇪🇺 Eurozone
- ECB Governing Council Meetings – Next policy meeting on 29-30 Oct 2025.
- Eurozone Inflation & PMI data – Directional drivers for ECB stance.
🌏 Asia (ex-India)
- China GDP, Retail Sales, PMI, Trade Balance – Direct impact on commodities & Asian stocks.
- Japan Inflation & BoJ stance – FX & bond flows sensitive to policy tweaks.
- South Korea Export/Import data – Leading signal for Asia’s trade health.
📖 Word of the Day – Blue-chip Stocks
Large, established companies with strong balance sheets, stable earnings, and dividend history (e.g., HDFC Bank, TCS, Reliance). Known for lower volatility and steady long-term returns, they form the core of conservative portfolios.
🔮 Outlook for 16th September 2025
- Bias: Range-bound; Nifty capped near 25,250 unless strong buying emerges.
- Sectors to Watch: Power (Adani, NTPC Green), Infrastructure (Mishra Dhatu, JSW Infra), Hotels (Lemon Tree).
- Investor Takeaway: Prefer blue-chip stocks for stability; traders can play the 25,000–25,250 range on Nifty. Commodities remain attractive hedges with gold and silver outperforming equities.
Disclaimer
Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.
