15th October Market Report

🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Reading: 55.14 — Greed Zone
• Weekly Change: +0.44 points (from 54.70 last week)
• Market Sentiment: Optimistic but cautious; investors awaiting Fed rate-cut confirmation and domestic inflation follow-up data.

“The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.” — Peter Thiel

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🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview (as of 09:17 AM IST)

Region / Market	Index	Level (High – Low)	% Change	Trend
🇮🇳 India	Nifty 50	25,145.50 (25,210 – 25,060)	–0.32 %	Mild Weakness
🇮🇳 India	Sensex	82,029.98 (82,210 – 81,880)	–0.36 %	Soft
🇮🇳 India	Bank Nifty	56,496.45 (56,640 – 56,300)	–0.23 %	Sideways
🇺🇸 USA	Dow Jones	46,270.46 (46,380 – 46,000)	+0.44 %	Rebound
🇺🇸 USA	Nasdaq Composite	22,521.70 (22,780 – 22,350)	–0.76 %	Profit Booking
🇺🇸 USA	S&P 500	6,644.31 (6,670 – 6,610)	–0.16 %	Flat
🇩🇪 Germany	DAX 40	24,236.94 (24,420 – 24,150)	–0.62 %	Weak
🇫🇷 France	CAC 40	7,919.62 (7,950 – 7,870)	–0.18 %	Rangebound
🇬🇧 UK	FTSE 100	9,452.77 (9,470 – 9,430)	+0.10 %	Stable
🇯🇵 Japan	Nikkei 225	47,287.00 (47,440 – 47,000)	+0.94 %	Positive
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	Hang Seng	25,698.97 (25,880 – 25,500)	+1.01 %	Recovery
🇰🇷 South Korea	KOSPI	3,612.49 (3,625 – 3,560)	+1.42 %	Bullish
🇦🇺 Australia	ASX 200	8,972.00 (8,990 – 8,910)	+0.82 %	Firm
🇮🇳 India	GIFT Nifty	25,287.50 (25,310 – 25,180)	+0.37 %	Positive Start
—	India VIX	11.16 (11.25 – 10.95)	+1.34 %	Volatility Rising
—	USD/INR	88.76 (88.79 – 88.70)	–0.01 %	Flat

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📅 Economic Calendar — India / USA / Europe (Week of 15 Oct 2025)

🇮🇳 India

• WPI Inflation (Sep): Due today — expected +1.8 % YoY (vs 1.4 % previous).
• CPI follow-up commentary: RBI statement anticipated this week after CPI at 1.54 %.
• Trade Balance (Sep): Data release later this week — deficit expected to widen marginally.
• Forex Reserves update: Expected Friday 18 Oct.

🇺🇸 United States

• Retail Sales (Sep): Due tonight — expected +0.4 %.
• CPI and Core CPI: Final readings this week — expected 0.2 % MoM gain.
• PPI Inflation: Due 16 Oct — market consensus +0.3 %.
• FOMC Minutes: 17 Oct — focus on next rate-cut signal.
• Initial Jobless Claims: 17 Oct — projected at 235 K.

🇪🇺 Europe / UK

• Eurozone CPI (Final Sep): Due 15 Oct — expected +2.4 %.
• ZEW Economic Sentiment (Germany): 15 Oct — forecast +8.2.
• Eurozone Industrial Production: 16 Oct — expected +0.3 %.
• ECB Speeches: 17 Oct — President Lagarde to comment on policy direction.
• UK GDP (Q3 Estimate): 15 Oct — expected +0.4 %.

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📰 Market Bulletin — Key Updates

• GIFT Nifty signals a positive start (+82 pts premium).
• Asian Markets higher on Fed-cut expectations: Nikkei +0.94 %, KOSPI +1.42 %.
• US Markets: Mixed; Dow +0.44 %, S&P –0.16 %, Nasdaq –0.76 %.
• IMF raises India FY26 growth to 6.6 % — strongest major economy projection.
• India’s Russian oil imports down 8.4 % Apr–Sep as refiners pivot to ME/US crudes.
• Bharti Telecom raises ₹10,500 cr via bonds to refinance debt.
• LG Electronics expands India AI & robotics R&D.
• Cochin Shipyard wins $300 mn LNG-ship export order.
• Canara HSBC Life IPO closes 2.29× — QIB 7.05×.
• Brent $62, WTI $59 — stable amid ample supply.
• Gold $4,155 / oz — near record high on safe-haven flows.
• Rupee 88.77/$ — slightly weaker in early trade.

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📈 Technical Overview

Nifty 50 — 25,145.5 (–0.32 %)

• Trend: Short-term pullback but structure positive with higher lows.
• Support: 25,060 / 24,950 | Resistance: 25,420 / 25,540.
• RSI 55.08 | MACD positive | Histogram above zero.

Bank Nifty — 56,496.45 (–0.23 %)

• Trend: Minor retracement; still above rising moving averages.
• Call OI Resistance: 57,000 – 58,000 | Put OI Support: 55,000 – 56,000.

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💰 FII & DII Cash Flows

Date	FII (₹ Cr)	DII (₹ Cr)
14 Oct 2025	–28,017.8	+55,987.8
13 Oct 2025	–1,961.6	+17,791.6
10 Oct 2025	+100.1	+8,896.7
09 Oct 2025	–1,508.5	+3,661.1

Interpretation: FIIs continue large outflows; DIIs remain strong net buyers absorbing pressure.

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💎 Commodities & Forex (09:17 AM IST)

Asset	Price	Change	Comment
Gold (Spot)	$4,155.99 / oz	▲ +0.3 %	Safe-haven flows.
Silver (India)	₹1,71,000 / kg	▲ +0.5 %	Record levels; industrial demand.
Brent Crude	$62 / bbl	Flat	Rangebound.
WTI Crude	$59 / bbl	Flat	Muted.
USD/INR	88.76	–0.01 %	Stable rupee.
Bitcoin	$117,200	–0.8 %	Consolidation.
Ethereum	$4,000	–1.1 %	Soft trade.

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⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers

1. Persistent FII outflows impacting liquidity.
2. Crude price volatility vs import cost pressures.
3. USD/INR range — inflation and bond impact.
4. Global rate-cut expectations — Fed minutes critical.
5. Earnings volatility ahead of Q2 results season.

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🔮 Outlook for 15 Oct 2025

• Bias: Positive start on global tailwind but intraday volatility likely.
• Nifty Range: 25,050 – 25,400 | Bank Nifty: 55,900 – 56,800.
• Focus Sectors: Metals and Energy bullish; IT and Autos neutral.

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📖 Word of the Day — “Cash Drag”

Holding too much cash in a portfolio reduces overall returns when markets rise.
Example: A fund earning 4 % on cash vs 12 % on equities loses 0.8 % of performance per 10 % cash allocation.

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📜 Disclaimer — aiTrendview.com

This report is prepared solely for educational and informational purposes.
It does not constitute investment advice or research.
aiTrendview.com and contributors are not SEBI-registered analysts.
All data is AI-aggregated from public sources and cross-verified for accuracy.
Consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.

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