12th December India & Global Market Report

Market Pulse: December 13, 2025 — Bulls Trap? Domestic Euphoria Meets Global Bloodbath

The Indian markets closed yesterday (Dec 12) on a deceptively strong note, with the Nifty 50 reclaiming the psychological 26,000 mark and the Sensex surging over 400 points. The rally was fueled by a risk-on sentiment in the broader market, evidenced by a robust advance-decline ratio where nearly 2,071 stocks advanced against just 1,036 declines. Sectors like Metals and Realty spearheaded the charge, driven by hopes of China’s stimulus and domestic capex continuity. However, this domestic optimism is now colliding head-on with a severe deterioration in global sentiment overnight. US indices have cracked significantly, with the S&P 500 futures down over 1.3% and the Nasdaq plunging nearly 2.5%, signaling that the “soft landing” narrative is being aggressively questioned by global bond markets.

Critically, the currency markets are flashing a major warning signal that cannot be ignored. The USDINR pair has broken out to fresh highs, trading above 90.54, indicating intense pressure on the Rupee despite the domestic equity rally. This divergence—stocks rising while the currency collapses—is a classic late-cycle bull trap signal. While domestic institutions (DIIs) continue to support the floor, the aggressive selling in global tech and the strengthening dollar suggest that the Indian market’s resilience will be severely tested at the opening bell. The setup demands extreme caution; the “buy the dip” strategy that worked yesterday may prove hazardous today as global headwinds intensify.

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1. Economic Announcements (The Dec 11 Catalyst)

Before analysing today’s data, it is crucial to understand the economic triggers from December 11 that set the stage for yesterday’s domestic rally:

• US Fed Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve executed a 25 bps rate cut, which was initially cheered by emerging markets, leading to the relief rally seen on the 12th.
• China Stimulus Hopes: Reports of aggressive fiscal support from China boosted global metal prices, directly fuelling the 2.63% surge in the Nifty Metal Index yesterday.
• USDINR Breakout: The Rupee weakening past 90 was initially ignored by equity markets but has now become the central risk factor, driven by stalled trade talks and FII outflows.

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2. Global Indices, Forex & Crypto

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
US500	6,828.1	-90.8	-1.31%	Major breakdown; bearish engulfing candle suggests the post-Fed rally has failed.
US30	48,471.00	-290.00	-0.59%	Dow holding better than tech but still succumbing to broad-based selling pressure.
NAS100	25,185.3	-628.6	-2.44%	Tech crash; high-valuation growth stocks are being dumped aggressively.
FCE1!	8,072.5	-18.5	-0.23%	European markets muted; awaiting further cues from the ECB and US data.
FDAX1!	24,217	-72	-0.30%	Germany weak; manufacturing slowdown concerns continue to weigh on the DAX.
J225	50,135.8	-771.5	-1.52%	Nikkei plunging; tracking the Nasdaq fall and Yen volatility.
HSI	25,976.80	446.28	1.75%	The outlier; Hang Seng rallying on China stimulus hopes, decoupling from the West.
XJO	8,697.3	105.3	1.23%	Australia strong; commodities and mining strength supporting the index.
USDINR	90.5440	0.3330	0.37%	Rupee crash; trading above 90.50 is a critical red flag for FII flows.
EURUSD	1.17376	0.00001	0.00%	Euro flat; consolidation phase against the dollar continues.
BTCUSD	90,397.93	119.93	0.13%	Bitcoin holding $90k; acting as a relative safe haven amidst the tech rout.
ETHUSD	3,090.7	5.8	0.19%	Ethereum stable; lack of selling pressure compared to Nasdaq is a positive divergence.
SOLANA	131.58	-5.46	-3.98%	Solana cracking; breaking key support levels, indicating altcoin weakness.

Summary: The global screen is a sea of red for developed markets. The Nasdaq (-2.44%) crash is the most significant data point, warning of a gap-down opening for Indian IT stocks. However, Hong Kong (+1.75%) and Australia (+1.23%) are green, suggesting that “Commodity” and “China-linked” sectors might survive the sell-off better than Tech.

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3. Commodities (Comex & MCX)

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
GOLD1!	133,622	1,153	0.87%	Domestic gold surging; Rupee depreciation adding to the gains. Strong hedge.
SILVER1!	192,851	-6,091	-3.06%	Silver crashing; industrial demand fears outweighing precious metal appeal.
CRUDEOIL	5,228	49	0.95%	Oil bouncing; supply constraints putting a floor under prices near 5200.
NATURALG	376.5	-4.6	-1.21%	Gas remains weak; trend is firmly bearish, no signs of reversal yet.
XAUUSD	4,299.38	20.045	0.47%	Spot gold nearing $4300; safe-haven demand rising as equities fall.
BRENT	60.905	-0.420	-0.68%	Global oil still soft; hovering near $60 is positive for Indian fiscal math.
XTIUSD	57.52	-0.40	-0.69%	WTI below $58; confirms the broader energy deflation trend.

Summary: A sharp divergence exists between Gold (Bullish) and Silver (Bearish). Gold is acting as a currency hedge and safe haven, while Silver is tanking (-3%) likely due to fears of a global industrial slowdown. Traders should favor Gold longs over Silver.

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4. Domestic Indices & Sectors (Dec 12 Closing)

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
NIFTY	26,046.95	148.40	0.57%	Reclaimed 26k; looks bullish on charts but vulnerable to global gap-down.
BANKNIF	59,389.95	180.10	0.30%	Lagging the Nifty; private banks (Kotak) dragging the index.
NIFTY_MID	13,908.25	180.20	1.31%	Star performer; massive retail participation driving midcaps higher.
INDIAVIX	10.1075	-0.2925	-2.81%	VIX crushed to 10; dangerously complacent levels before a storm.
CNXMETAL	10,536.45	269.60	2.63%	Top Sector; China stimulus hopes driving Tata Steel and Hindalco.
CNXINFRA	9,551.55	111.30	1.18%	Strong; govt capex themes attracting buying interest.
CNXREALTY	886.55	13.35	1.53%	Interest rate cut hopes keeping realty stocks buoyant.
CNXFMCG	54,490.80	-128.85	-0.24%	Defensive rotation failed; money moved to high-beta sectors yesterday.

Summary: The domestic texture was overwhelmingly positive yesterday, led by Metals (+2.63%) and Midcaps (+1.31%). However, the India VIX at 10.10 is the scariest data point. It suggests zero fear, leaving the market completely unhedged against the global drop we are seeing today.

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5. Top Movers (Gainers & Losers)

Symbol (Gainers)	LTP	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
MAHAPEXLTD	95.24	19.99%	Upper circuit; speculative volume breakout.
TVVISION	7.77	19.91%	Penny stock play; highly risky, avoid unless tracking.
TARIL	277.50	16.04%	Strong momentum; likely order book news driving the surge.
RELIANCE	1,556.50	0.74%	Heavyweight support; holding the 1550 zone is critical for Nifty.
ULTRACEMCO	11,723.00	2.19%	Cement strength; pricing power returning post-monsoon.

Symbol (Losers)	LTP	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
PATELEG-RE	2.24	-39.95%	Rights entitlement crash; time decay destroying value.
REFEX	254.90	-19.99%	Lower circuit; massive profit booking or regulatory news impact.
KOTAKBANK	2,176.60	-0.17%	Relative weakness; underperforming other private banks.
VLSFINANCE	298.50	-10.39%	Breakdown; failed to hold 300 support level.

6. Option Chain Analysis (Expiry Outlook)

Index	Strike	Data Point	Live Market Takeaway
NIFTY	26,000 Call	11.3M Volume	Massive resistance; writers will defend this vigorously if we gap down.
NIFTY	26,000 Put	9.6M Volume	Strong support yesterday, but these writers are trapped if we open below 25,950.
BANKNIFTY	59,500 Call	5.1M Volume	Aggressive call writing; upside capped at 59,500 for now.
BANKNIFTY	59,300 Put	2.8M Volume	Crucial support; if this breaks, expect a slide to 59,000.

Summary: The options data shows a massive battle at 26,000 on Nifty. The high volume on both Calls (11.3M) and Puts (9.6M) suggests a “Straddle” was the dominant trade yesterday. A gap down today will panic the Put writers, triggering a short-covering slide.

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7. IPO Watch

Company	Status	Takeaway
HRS Aluglaze	Open (Subscription 1.8x)	SME Issue; Retail interest is building up.
Pajson Agro	Open (Subscription 2.3x)	Stronger demand here compared to peers.
Wakefit Innovations	Listing Soon	Mainboard IPO; listing performance will set sentiment.
Corona Remedies	Listing Soon (Sub 137x)	Massive oversubscription; expect a bumper listing.

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8. Strategic Takeaways & Risk Analysis

The “Bear Trap” vs. “Bull Trap” Dilemma:

Yesterday’s closing looked like a breakout (Nifty > 26k). However, today’s pre-market data (US500 -1.31%) confirms yesterday was likely a Bull Trap. The market lured retail traders into midcaps and metals, only to face a global wall of selling.

Risk Factors:

1. Gap Down: Nifty is likely to gap down below 25,900. If it breaks 25,850, the 26k breakout fails.
2. USDINR: At 90.54, FIIs are incentivized to sell equity to repatriate dollars. This puts heavy pressure on Banks and FMCG.
3. VIX Spike: Expect VIX to jump from 10 to 12-13 today. Option premiums will spike; short sellers of options should be careful.

How to Analyze This Data for Trade

• For Index Traders (Nifty): The 26,046 close is now resistance. Watch the 26,000 Call OI (Image 6)—it has massive volume (11M). If Nifty opens below 26,000, these call writers will dominate. Trade: Short on bounce near 25,950-26,000. Target 25,800.
• For Bank Nifty Traders: The 59,500 Call writers (Image 7) are active. With HDFC Bank barely positive and Kotak weak, the index lacks leadership. Trade: Bear Put Spread (Buy 59,300 PE, Sell 59,000 PE).
• For Stock Pickers:
  • Avoid IT: Nasdaq -2.44% is a direct hit on stocks like TCS and Infosys despite Rupee weakness.
  • Focus on Metals: Tata Steel and Hindalco (CNXMETAL +2.63%) showed real strength. If they dip but hold support, they are the only “buy” candidates due to the China factor.
  • Defensive Hedge: Gold BeES or Gold Futures (Image 2) are the safest bet today given the global turmoil.
• For Currency Traders: Long USDINR Futures. The breakout above 90.50 is technically significant. The trend is up until RBI intervention is visible.
  
  

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