10th December India & Global Market Report

Market Pulse: December 10, 2025 — Fed Jitters and FII Sell-Off Trigger Mid-Cap Meltdown

The markets are currently gripped by a palpable sense of nervousness as the global investment community awaits the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025 later today. While the headline Nifty 50 and Sensex indices are trading with modest cuts of roughly 0.3%, the real damage is visible in the broader market, particularly the mid-cap and small-cap segments. The Nifty Midcap Index has cracked over 1.5%, signaling a sharp risk-off sentiment where investors are aggressively booking profits in high-beta counters like Kaynes Technology and Dixon Technologies. This selling pressure is exacerbated by yesterday’s massive FII net outflow of ₹3,760 Crores, one of the highest single-day sell-off figures in recent weeks, indicating that foreign institutional money is continuing its exodus ahead of global macroeconomic events.

Compounding the domestic weakness is a muted global setup. US futures are trading flat-to-negative as traders refrain from placing large bets before Jerome Powell’s press conference. Asian peers are also trading in the red, with the Nikkei 225 down nearly 0.6% following reports of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Japan, further dampening regional sentiment. On the commodities front, a stark divergence is visible: Silver is witnessing strong safe-haven buying, up over 1%, while Natural Gas has crashed nearly 4.5%, likely driven by inventory buildup or warmer weather forecasts. This volatility across asset classes underscores a fragile market environment where capital preservation is currently taking precedence over aggressive alpha seeking.

The bottom line for today’s session is caution. The market structure has shifted from “buy on dips” to “sell on rise,” driven by the relentless supply of stock from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and a technical breakdown in mid-cap valuations. Until the Nifty can decisively reclaim the 26,000 mark and FII flows stabilize, traders should brace for continued intraday volatility and refrain from catching falling knives in the mid-cap space.

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1. Global Indices, Forex & Crypto

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
US500	6,833.5	-4.7	-0.07%	Flat trade suggests traders are sidelined, awaiting the Fed’s rate decision later today.
US30	47,513.00	-12.00	-0.03%	Consolidation continues; rotation out of industrials is pausing ahead of economic data.
NAS100	25,614.4	-39.5	-0.15%	Tech underperformance persists; yields holding steady is keeping growth stocks strictly rangebound.
FCE1	8,037.0	-21.5	-0.27%	CAC 40 weakness reflects ongoing concerns over Eurozone manufacturing slowdowns.
FDAX1	24,088	-104	-0.43%	German DAX slipping; weakness in auto heavyweights is dragging the index lower.
FESX1	5,714	-12	-0.21%	Euro Stoxx relatively resilient but lacking any bullish triggers to push higher.
China	2,492.3717	6.4401	0.26%	Shenzhen component showing mild decoupling from global weakness; local stimulus hopes likely at play.
HSI	25,540.78	106.54	0.42%	Hang Seng rebounding; value buying emerging in beaten-down Chinese tech and property names.
J225	50,474.0	-297.5	-0.59%	Nikkei correcting; sentiment hit by regional earthquake news and Yen volatility.
XJO	8,579.4	-6.5	-0.08%	Australia flat; mining sector support is balancing out weakness in financials.
KOSPI	4,135.00	-8.55	-0.21%	South Korea muted; waiting for cues from US tech earnings and semiconductor demand.
IRUS	2,719.54	16.82	0.62%	Russian index outperforming; likely driven by strength in specific energy counters.
MZNPI	30,111.04	-21.69	-0.07%	Flat trade; lack of volume indicates indifference in this specific market segment.
EURUSD	1.16398	0.00133	0.11%	Euro edging higher; dollar weakness ahead of the Fed meeting is providing a lift.
GBPUSD	1.33156	0.00208	0.16%	Pound strengthening; holding above 1.33 suggests bullish sentiment remains intact.
USDJPY	156.702	-0.109	-0.07%	Yen strengthening slightly; safe-haven flows emerging due to earthquake risks.
USDINR	89.9000	0.0410	0.05%	Rupee near record lows at 90; continued pressure from FII outflows is hurting the currency.
BTCUSD	91,871.00	-819.00	-0.88%	Bitcoin facing resistance at $92k; risk-off sentiment in equities spilling over to crypto.
ETHUSD	3,312.0	-6.8	-0.20%	Ethereum consolidating; inability to break higher suggests buyer exhaustion.
DOGUSD	0.1451	-0.0029	-1.96%	Meme coins bleeding; lack of speculative liquidity is evident in this sharp drop.
LTCUSD	84.01	-1.81	-2.11%	Litecoin weakness continues; clearly underperforming major crypto assets.
SOLANA	136.91	-0.86	-0.62%	Solana drifting lower; needs to hold $135 support to avoid further technical damage.
XRPUSDT	2.0599	-0.0463	-2.20%	Ripple leading the crypto fall; profit booking kicking in after recent rallies.

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2. Commodities

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
GOLD1	129,852	-255	-0.20%	Domestic gold muted; tracking global spot prices closely with a slight negative bias.
SILVER1	190,137	2,073	1.10%	Significant strength in Silver; likely industrial demand or hedging against currency volatility.
CRUDEOIL	5,280	34	0.65%	Crude recovering; supply tightness concerns resurfacing ahead of weekly inventory data.
NATURALG	402.9	-18.8	-4.46%	Massive crash; likely due to warmer weather forecasts reducing heating demand.
XAUUSD	4,196.815	-11.100	-0.26%	Spot gold below $4200; traders booking profits or waiting for Fed rate clarity.
SILVER	60.9670	0.2730	0.45%	Global silver holding $60; diverging from gold, showing independent strength.
BRENT	62.085	0.240	0.39%	Brent holding gains; stability here is a minor negative for Indian oil marketing companies.
XTIUSD	58.63	0.21	0.36%	WTI crude ticking up; tracking Brent but still in a broader bearish downtrend.
NATGAS	4.362	-0.105	-2.35%	Global gas prices down; confirming the bearish trend seen in domestic futures.

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3. Domestic Indices & Market Statistics

Symbol	LTP	Change	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
INDIAVIX	10.9125	-0.0400	-0.37%	Volatility dropping despite market fall; complacency suggests participants don’t expect a crash.
NIFTY1	25,883.0	-48.0	-0.19%	Futures trading at a discount; clearly shows short buildup by bears.
SENSEX	84,391.27	-275.01	-0.32%	Sensex struggling; dragged by financials and lack of buying in heavyweights.
NIFTY	25,758.00	-81.65	-0.32%	Nifty spot below 25,800 is bearish; next major support is crucial to hold.
BANKNIF	58,960.40	-261.95	-0.44%	Bank Nifty underperforming; selling in private banks is the main culprit.
NIFTY_MID	13,534.35	-207.00	-1.51%	Major breakdown; this is where the panic is. Investors are dumping midcaps.
CNXIT	37,789.90	-340.70	-0.89%	IT sector weak; likely due to NASDAQ weakness and rupee volatility.
CNXPSUB	8,193.55	-57.75	-0.70%	PSU Banks correcting; profit booking after yesterday’s brief rally.

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4. Top Gainers & Losers

Symbol (Gainers)	LTP	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
RAJSREESUG	38.40	20.00%	Locked in Upper Circuit; sugar stocks rallying likely on ethanol policy news.
FOCUS	80.37	19.99%	Explosive move; potentially driven by a bulk deal or insider buying.
SCPL	269.00	18.71%	Breakout with volume; stock has ignored broader market weakness completely.
TIPSFILMS	418.90	11.39%	Strong momentum; likely buzz around upcoming movie releases or rights deals.
S&SPOWER	235.19	10.00%	Power sector play; resilient demand for power equip keeps this stock buoyant.

Symbol (Losers)	LTP	% Change	Live Market Takeaway
HUBTOWN	250.05	-11.09%	Sharp correction; likely profit booking after a recent run-up in realty stocks.
KAYNES	3,876.00	-10.51%	Massive capitulation; high valuation and likely F&O ban impact driving the selloff.
ORTINGLOBE	13.87	-9.99%	Penny stock volatility; locked in lower circuit as speculators exit.
DIXON	12,366.00	-8.52%	Electronic manufacturing theme taking a hit; likely valuation concerns.
BLISSGVS	148.89	-8.20%	Pharma midcap weakness; failed to sustain higher levels, inviting shorts.

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5. Institutional Flows (FII/DII)

Date	FII Net (Cr)	DII Net (Cr)	Live Market Takeaway
9 Dec 2025	-3,760.1	+6,224.9	Massive FII sell-off yesterday; this overhang is the primary driver of today’s weakness.
Last 30 Days	-30,686.9	+88,958.9	Clear trend: FIIs are fleeing Indian equities while DIIs are aggressively absorbing the supply.

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Market Summary & Analysis

Technical Analysis:

The Nifty 50 has broken below the critical support zone of 25,800, trading at 25,758. This is a bearish signal for the short term. The Nifty Midcap Index is the biggest concern, crashing 1.51% and forming a large bearish candle. This indicates that the “buy on dips” texture in midcaps has been invalidated. The India VIX remaining below 11 despite this fall is an anomaly; it typically suggests that while prices are falling, option writers are not pricing in a catastrophic crash, but rather a slow grind lower.

Fundamental Analysis:

The driving force behind this correction is the Institutional Flow Divergence. FIIs sold a massive ₹3,760 Crores on Dec 9, adding to a monthly outflow of over ₹30,000 Crores. Valuations in high-growth midcaps like Kaynes Tech and Dixon are finally being questioned, leading to 8-10% corrections. Fundamentally, these companies remain strong, but their price-to-earnings multiples are contracting in a risk-off environment.

Economic Announcements:

• Global: All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve meeting concluding today. Markets are pricing in high volatility around the rate decision and Powell’s commentary on inflation.
• Domestic: The weakness in the Rupee (USDINR at 89.9) is a critical economic signal. It benefits IT and Pharma (exporters) theoretically, but today even those sectors are down, suggesting the FII outflow impact outweighs the currency benefit. The crash in Natural Gas (-4.46%) is a positive disinflationary signal for the Indian economy.

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Trading Takeaways: Risk & Caution

1. Watch the F&O Ban Trap: Kaynes Tech is down 10.51%. Stocks in the F&O ban period often face exaggerated moves because traders cannot take new positions to arrest the fall. Avoid buying these “falling knives” until they exit the ban list.
2. Respect the Trend: The trend is down. With Advances at 1,351 and Declines at 1,752, the market breadth is negative. Do not aggressively long the index.
3. Silver vs. Gold: There is a clear divergence. Silver (+1.10%) is outperforming Gold (-0.20%). If you must trade commodities, Silver long positions offer better relative strength than Gold.
4. Midcap Caution: The Nifty Midcap index is down 1.51%. If you hold midcaps like Dixon or Hubtown, consider tightening stop-losses. This segment is currently the source of liquidity for sellers.
5. Event Risk: Do not carry heavy overnight positions today. The Fed announcement later tonight will likely cause a gap-up or gap-down opening tomorrow that could bypass your stop-losses.

How to Use This Data for Trade Analysis

• For Intraday Traders: Focus on the Losers list. Stocks like Kaynes and Dixon have broken key supports with volume. Look for “sell on rise” setups in these specific counters rather than shorting the broader Nifty, which is less volatile.
• For Swing Traders: Look at the DII Buying (+6,224 Cr). They are buying what FIIs are selling. Identify high-quality large-caps (like SBI or ITC) that are resilient today. These will be the first to rally when FII selling stops.
• For Commodity Traders: The Natural Gas crash is actionable. It is deeply oversold at -4.46%. Watch for a reversal candle on the 15-minute chart for a high-risk, high-reward contrarian buy, or wait for it to break $4.00 to short further.
• For Sector Analysis: Avoid IT and Realty today. Focus on Sugar stocks (like Rajshree Sugars) which are showing independent momentum driven by sector-specific news (likely ethanol pricing or export quotas).

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