3rd October Market Report

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🌀 Fear & Greed Index

• Current Sentiment: Greed (≈58.0)
• Weekly Note: Sentiment has cooled from earlier “extreme greed” levels but still tilted to risk-on.

“Keep position sizing sensible; markets can stay choppy even when trend exists.”

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🌏 Global & Domestic Market Overview

• Nifty 50: 24,760.00 (intraday)
• BSE Sensex: 80,809.00 (intraday)
• Nifty Bank: 55,348.00
• India VIX: 11.1 — calm, low volatility
• USD/INR (spot): 88.77 — rupee rangebound in 88.70–88.80

Tone: Mixed. Metals, PSU banks and energy stocks show strength; exporters and IT remain cautious on rupee and global flows.

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📰 Market Bulletin

• FII flows remain a headwind — September ended with heavy net selling.
• Rupee weakness continues near 88.7, raising concerns of imported inflation.
• Commodity sectors lead intraday gains; metals and refiners in focus.
• Macro calendar: RBI liquidity operations and October F&O positioning are near-term drivers.

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📈 Index Technicals

🔹 Nifty 50 — 24,760.00

• Short-term bias: Consolidation (24,600–25,000)
• Supports: 24,600 / 24,450
• Resistances: 25,000 / 25,200
• Momentum: Neutral — awaiting flow reversal or breakout.

🔹 Bank Nifty — 55,348.00

• Support at 55,000; resistance at 56,000.
• Banks outperforming broader market intraday.

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📌 Stocks in Focus

Strengths:

• Metals & Mining — commodity uptick
• PSU Banks — credit flows supportive
• Energy & O&G — stable Brent crude aiding refiners

Under Pressure:

• IT sector — impacted by global cues and INR volatility
• Export-heavy stocks — margin risk from weaker rupee

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📊 Derivatives & Positioning

• Nifty PCR: ~0.95 → neutral
• Options positioning: Heavy Calls at 25,000; strong Puts at 24,600 — expiry pivots
• Bias: Market capped below 25,000 unless FIIs return as buyers

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💰 FII / DII Flows

• September FII Outflows: ~$2.7 billion net
• DIIs: Strong buyers, absorbing pressure from foreign selling

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🚀 IPO & Listings

• Several SME and sectoral IPOs open; subscription trends mixed
• Select energy and pharma names drawing stronger investor appetite

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💎 Commodities & Metals (2:15 PM IST)

Precious Metals

• Gold (Spot): ~$3,856/oz — record highs on safe-haven flows
• Gold (India Futures): ~₹117,800 / 10g — INR weakness adds support
• Silver: ~₹144,000 / kg — driven by industrial and hedge demand
• Platinum: ~$1,393/oz — auto demand steady
• Palladium: ~$1,199/oz — rangebound

Industrial Metals

• Copper: ~$10,300 / tonne — EV & infra demand supportive
• Aluminium: ~$2,690 / tonne — steady consumption demand
• Zinc: ~$2,950 / tonne — galvanising demand stable

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⚡ Energy (2:15 PM IST)

• Brent Crude: ~$65–66/bbl — rangebound on OPEC+ monitoring
• WTI Crude: ~$62.6/bbl — tracking Brent
• Natural Gas: ~$3.3/MMBtu — seasonal stability

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💱 Forex & Crypto (2:15 PM IST)

• USD/INR: 88.77 — rupee weak but rangebound
• Dollar Index: ~97.8 — firm dollar backdrop
• Bitcoin: ~$114,600 — consolidating
• Ethereum: ~$4,160 — steady near highs

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⚠️ Top 5 Risk Triggers for Indian Markets

1. FII Outflows: Persistent, with September net ~$2.7bn
2. USD/INR Weakness: 88.7–88.8 range → imported inflation risk
3. Crude Oil: ~$65–66/bbl → pressure on trade deficit
4. RBI Liquidity: Tightness possible from tax flows and borrowing calendar
5. Global Central Banks / US Headlines: Fed tone and US budget noise could trigger volatility

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📊 Risk Trend Table

Risk Factor	Today (03 Oct, 2:15 PM)	5-Day Trend
FII Flows	Net selling (Sept ~$2.7bn)	🔻 Persistent outflows
USD/INR	88.77	🔻 Weak
Brent Crude	~$65–66/bbl	⚠️ Rangebound
RBI Liquidity	Watch RBI ops	⚠️ Tight
Global Policy	Fed cautious, US noise	⚠️ Volatile

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📖 Word of the Day — Roll-over Risk

Risk of sharp price swings at futures and options expiry due to concentrated open interest shifting to the next contract month.

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🔮 Outlook for 03 October 2025

• Bias: Sideways-to-weak; any upside capped near 25,000 on Nifty until FII flows turn positive
• Sectors to Watch: Metals & Energy (leaders), PSU Banks (steady), IT & Exports (vulnerable)
• Investor Takeaway: Stay selective, avoid heavy leverage, hedge with gold or options, and keep watch on FII flows and rupee trend

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Disclaimer

• Training & Educational Only — This material provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full back testing and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.